Bitcoin is projected to potentially fall to around $30,000 by the end of 2026, according to analyst Merlijn The Trader. This forecast is based on historical patterns tied to US midterm election years, raising skepticism about reaching a $250,000 target.
Key points
Bitcoin could fall to around $30,000 by the end of 2026
Projection based on historical patterns tied to US midterm elections
Previous midterm election years saw Bitcoin drops of 60% to 66%
Skepticism grows around the $250,000 target for Bitcoin in 2026
Mentioned in this story
Merlijn The TraderPeter BrandtCapital GroupTim DraperTom Lee
Bitcoin could fall to around $30,000 before the year is out — at least according to one widely followed chart analyst. That bleak projection, drawn from a pattern tied to US midterm election years, is adding fresh weight to a growing skepticism about whether Bitcoin can reach $250,000 in 2026.
Pattern Tied To Election Years Raises Red Flags
Analyst Merlijn The Trader pointed to a recurring tendency for Bitcoin to sell off sharply in May of midterm election years. In 2014, Bitcoin dropped 60%. In 2018, it fell 65%. In 2022, the decline hit 66%.
Each of those drops started around May. If 2026 follows the same script, Bitcoin — currently trading near $77,000 — could lose more than 60% of its value, landing somewhere close to $30,000.
THREE WORDS. THREE CYCLES. ZERO EXCEPTIONS.
Sell. In. May.
But only in mid-term election years.
2014: -61%. 2018: -65%. 2022: -66%.
2026: mid-term year. -60.73% is pointing to $30K.
May is approaching.
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) April 27, 2026
Capital Group analysts have noted that midterm elections tend to increase market uncertainty, as campaign activity picks up in the spring and investors pull back from riskier assets. That environment, they say, historically pushes people toward caution.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is already trading roughly 40% below its October 2025 record high of approximately $126,000. Despite that slide, high-profile bulls like billionaire Tim Draper and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee have not walked back their $250,000 year-end target — a price that would require the cryptocurrency to more than triple from where it sits today.
Bitcoiners
Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to stop with the mushrooms
This is called a channel $BTC
While it does not preclude further price gains, it is NOT a bullish bottoming pattern
The Factor Report reports on classical chart analysis pic.twitter.com/ApMM46KFla
Peter Brandt Tells Bulls To Put Down The Mushrooms
Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt has been blunter than most. Reacting to the $250,000 predictions, Brandt posted on social media: “Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to stop with the mushrooms.”
He pointed to what he described as a bear flag channel forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart — not a bottoming pattern, he stressed, but a continuation of the existing downtrend.
BTCUSD trading at $77,082 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Based on the setup, BTC tested resistance near $79,500 before showing signs of pulling back. A move down to the flag’s lower boundary, around $69,000, is possible in May if selling pressure returns. A more severe breakdown below that line, Brandt warned, could push Bitcoin under $50,000.
Halving Cycle Data Suggests The Peak May Already Be In
The halving cycle history makes the bear case harder to dismiss. Bitcoin’s price peaks have historically arrived 12 to 18 months after each halving event. After the 2012 halving, the peak came in 12 months. After 2016, it arrived in 17. After 2020, it took 18 months.
The most recent halving happened in April 2024. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 — right at the 17 to 18-month mark. Now, more than 24 months past that halving, the price sits around $77,000 and is still declining. That timeline, analysts say, lines up closely with prior cycle peaks, suggesting the top for this cycle may already be behind us.
Not everyone is ready to call it a bear market, though. Analysts at Bernstein have pointed to a potential recovery toward the $100,000 to $150,000 range, a more measured view that neither chases the $250,000 target nor surrenders to the most bearish projections.
*Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView*
Q&A
What is the projected Bitcoin price for 2026 according to analysts?
Analysts project Bitcoin could fall to around $30,000 by the end of 2026.
Why do analysts believe Bitcoin will drop significantly in 2026?
Analysts cite historical sell-off patterns in midterm election years as a reason for the expected decline.
What historical price drops has Bitcoin experienced during midterm election years?
In previous midterm election years, Bitcoin dropped 60% in 2014, 65% in 2018, and 66% in 2022.
What do analysts say about the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 in 2026?
Many analysts express skepticism about Bitcoin reaching $250,000 in 2026, suggesting that current trends do not support such a bullish outlook.
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