$33K Could Be Bitcoin’s Next Stop if History Repeats: Analyst
TL;DR
Analyst Merlijn The Trader warns that Bitcoin could drop to $33,000 based on historical patterns. Following a recent correction from $82,000 to $78,000, bearish sentiment is rising among analysts.
Key points
- Bitcoin could drop to $33,000 according to analyst Merlijn The Trader
- Historical declines in midterm election years have been significant
- Recent price correction from $82,000 to $78,000 has raised bearish sentiment
Sell in May and go away is a popular saying in the financial markets, and renowned analyst Merlijn The Trader outlined a historical pattern that could be even more painful for BTC now.
His targets are quite worrying, with the worst-case scenario predicting a massive plunge to $33,000.
Another 60% Decline Soon?
Following bitcoin’s rejection at $82,000 earlier this week and the subsequent correction to a 15-day low of $78,000, the bearish sentiment in Crypto X skyrocketed, with several analysts outlining different scenarios in which BTC could crash further. The latest to hop on the bear bandwagon was Merlijn The Trader, who noted that the cryptocurrency has significantly underperformed in the three previous midterm election years, such as the current one.
According to his data, the asset fell by 61% in 2014, by 65% in 2018, and by 66% four years ago. He warned: “Three cycles. Three dumps. Zero exceptions.” If this pattern is to play out in the current mid-term year, then BTC could plunge to $33,000.
Although there are a few potentially bullish factors now, such as the advancing CLARITY Act and some deals between the US and China, Merlijn added that “the calendar has never been wrong.”
The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history.
Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect.
Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time.2014: Sell in May. -61%.
2018: Sell in May. -65%.
2022: Sell in May. -66%.Three cycles. Three dumps. Zero exceptions.
2026… pic.twitter.com/jErVlpY4BZ
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) May 17, 2026
Or Maybe Just $45K
In a separate post, Merlijn talked about a different historical pattern that bitcoin could be mimicking now – the 2021 phase. At the time, BTC experienced similar price moves that eventually led to a bigger crash. He outlined the six steps that the cryptocurrency went through at the time, and said the asset could be in the Accumulation phase now (step 4).
If that’s the case, then BTC could be on the verge of another decline. However, this scenario is slightly less bearish as Merlijn’s targets are somewhere between $45,000 and $59,000. The key to this setup playing out is the $78,000 support, which is currently being tested.
If BTC is to lose that level, it could drop to Merlijn’s targets. However, if it manages to hold, then step 4 could be skipped, and the run might be closer than expected.
Q&A
What is the historical pattern that suggests Bitcoin could drop to $33,000?
Merlijn The Trader highlighted that Bitcoin has historically declined significantly during midterm election years, with drops of 61% in 2014, 65% in 2018, and 66% four years ago.
What recent price movements have Bitcoin experienced?
Bitcoin was recently rejected at $82,000 and corrected to a 15-day low of $78,000, prompting increased bearish sentiment among analysts.
Who is Merlijn The Trader and what is his prediction for Bitcoin?
Merlijn The Trader is a renowned analyst predicting that Bitcoin could plunge to $33,000 if the historical pattern of midterm election years continues.
