AI Agents Spending Money Online? New Research Says Not Really
TL;DR
Research by TRM Labs reveals that AI agents contribute minimally to payment volumes on Coinbase's x402 protocol, accounting for only 0.6% to 7.5% of commerce. The study analyzed $52.7 million across 198.9 million settlements since May 2025.
Key points
- TRM analyzed $52.7 million in payments
- Study covered 198.9 million settlements
- AI agents contributed 0.6% to 7.5% of commerce
- Exclusions included self-payments and anomalies
- Research focused on Coinbase's x402 protocol
In brief
- TRM examined roughly $52.7 million across 198.9 million x402 settlements.
- Screening out self-payments and other anomalous flows left $25.62 million in likely commerce.
- Agents accounted for a small share under TRM’s models, which cannot conclusively distinguish them from scripts.
Most payment volume on Coinbase’s x402 protocol isn’t coming from AI agents, according to blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs.
TRM’s report, published Wednesday, examined $52.7 million across 198.9 million settlements processed by known x402 facilitators on Base, Solana, and Polygon since May 2025. After excluding self-payments and other anomalous flows, researchers estimated that just 0.6%–7.5% of the remaining commerce by value appeared to come from AI agents.
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“The assumption is that a true agent explores across multiple services and products, while an address repeating the same price behaves more like a script hitting one service over and over,” the report said. “This is a deliberate modeling choice, and it may understate the space: many agents today could be single-purpose, paying one service repeatedly, which this test would read as a script.”
Launched by Coinbase in 2025, x402 integrates payments into web requests. The buyer receives a price and signs a payment authorization; a facilitator verifies it, submits the blockchain transaction, and pays the network fee.
According to TRM Labs, an ordinary script can follow that sequence without an AI agent. Scheduled jobs, load tests, and self-dealing can also produce the same blockchain records, making protocol totals insufficient to measure agent commerce.
Q&A
What percentage of payments on Coinbase's x402 protocol come from AI agents?
AI agents account for only 0.6% to 7.5% of the payment volume on Coinbase's x402 protocol.
How much total payment volume was analyzed in the TRM Labs report?
The TRM Labs report analyzed approximately $52.7 million across 198.9 million settlements.
What factors were excluded from the payment volume analysis by TRM Labs?
TRM Labs excluded self-payments and other anomalous flows from their payment volume analysis.
What blockchain networks were included in the TRM Labs study?
The study included settlements processed on Base, Solana, and Polygon.
