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CoinDesk1 min read
Analyst: Bitcoin’s February Dip to $60K Marked Cycle Low
TL;DR
Analyst Ash Crypto claims Bitcoin's drop to $60,000 in February 2026 marked the cycle's low. He suggests that Bitcoin may now be entering a new upward trend.
Key points
- Bitcoin dropped to around $60,000 in February 2026
- Ash Crypto claims this marked the cycle's low
- Historical pattern shows bottoms occur 23 months after new ATHs
Popular crypto analyst Ash Crypto has said that Bitcoin’s drop to around $60,000 in February 2026 was the bottom of the current market cycle, based on a pattern he says has played out precisely across the past two cycles.
If he’s right, the king cryptocurrency may already be in the early stages of a new leg higher.
The 23-Month Pattern Behind the Call
Ash Crypto’s argument is simple:
“Each cycle, BTC has made a new ATH,” he wrote on X. “And the bottom happened exactly 23 months after making a new ATH.”
To back his theory, he went back to January 2017 when BTC hit an all-time high. This was followed 23 months later by a cycle low in December 2018.
The same thing happened in the cycle after that, the analyst said. BTC hit its peak in December 2020, and 23 months later, in November 2022, it bottomed.
“This cycle, Bitcoin made a new ATH in March 2024. If it goes by history, the bottom has already happened in February 2026 (23 months),” the analyst concluded.
This was right around the time BTC touched the $60,000 level, then went back above $70,000.
The timing alone would be easy to dismiss, but Ash Crypto added three technical signals that all fired during the low earlier in the year. The weekly RSI dropped to a four-year low. The sentiment index hit its worst reading on record. And Bitcoin retested the 2021 cycle high.
“All these things combined have previously marked the bottom for Bitcoin,” he wrote, “and maybe ‘THIS TIME IT’S NOT DIFFERENT.'”
On-chain data from analyst Ali Martinez tells a similar story, at least partially. Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio collapsed to -43 before recovering to around 20, suggesting that the market absorbed the worst of the selling.
At the same time, the share of Bitcoin’s realized market cap held by people who bought within the last month has fallen below 7%, which in past cycles has meant retail is largely gone and supply has settled into stronger hands.
Bears Aren’t Convinced
Fellow analyst Ted Pillows is seeing things differently. According to him, a small bounce had happened, but he still expected new lows on the higher timeframe.
Q&A
What did Ash Crypto say about Bitcoin's February 2026 price drop?
Ash Crypto stated that Bitcoin's drop to around $60,000 in February 2026 was the bottom of the current market cycle.
How does Ash Crypto predict Bitcoin's market cycles?
He argues that Bitcoin has historically made a new all-time high (ATH) and that the bottom occurs exactly 23 months after each ATH.
What are the implications of Bitcoin's recent price movement according to analysts?
If Ash Crypto's analysis is correct, Bitcoin may be in the early stages of a new upward trend following its recent low.
