Best Time to Buy BTC? CoinGecko Points to These US Holidays

A new study by CoinGecko found that buying Bitcoin on US holidays has historically delivered much stronger short-term returns compared to regular trading days.

The analysis examined Bitcoin’s forward returns across different calendar days between May 1, 2013, and May 8, 2026, focusing on single-day gains after purchase.

BTC’s Strongest Next-Day Rallies

According to the data, US holidays recorded an average next-day Bitcoin return of 0.77%, compared to just 0.19% on non-holidays. CoinGecko found that holidays outperformed regular days in 11 of the 14 calendar years included in the study. Among regular weekdays, Mondays and Wednesdays posted the highest average next-day return at 0.38%, while Thursdays were the only day to produce a negative average return of 0.09%.

The report identified New Year’s Day as the strongest-performing holiday for Bitcoin purchases, with an average next-day return of 2.01% across 13 observations and a win rate of 84.6%, meaning Bitcoin rose the following day in 11 out of 13 years. Columbus Day posted the same 84.6% win rate alongside an average return of 1.70%, while Christmas generated a 1.46% average next-day gain with a 53.8% win rate.

CoinGecko said the New Year’s Day pattern may indicate the broader January momentum effect often seen in traditional financial markets, where investors deploy fresh capital at the start of a new year. The study added that Bitcoin may also benefit from a shift away from December tax-loss selling into renewed January positioning. The report noted that Bitcoin’s price on January 1 ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, yet the pattern of next-day gains remained relatively consistent throughout the period.

However, not all holidays produced positive results. Martin Luther King Jr. Day recorded the weakest performance with an average next-day negative return of 0.84%, largely influenced by Bitcoin’s 18.65% drop following January 15, 2018, during the early phase of the crypto bear market. Independence Day also averaged a negative return at 0.26%. Veterans Day showed an average gain of 1.75%, but CoinGecko warned that the figure was distorted by a few unusually large rallies, while the holiday’s win rate remained below 50%.

The study also found little meaningful difference in Bitcoin performance between weekdays and weekends. Weekdays averaged a 0.21% positive next-day return compared to 0.22% on weekends, which CoinGecko described as statistically insignificant due to Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading structure.

Over a one-year holding period, the day of purchase had almost no impact on long-term returns, as average annual gains across all weekdays remained within a narrow 2.4 percentage point range. CoinGecko added that while holiday purchases also showed slightly stronger one-year returns, the effect was likely indicative of broader market cycles rather than a continued holiday-driven trend.