Bitcoin Bottom At $63,000? Grayscale Research Flags Feb. 5 As This Cycle’s Low

Bitcoin (BTC) may be starting to shake off the worst part of the downturn that began in October last year, according to new research from Grayscale. The firm points to Feb. 5—when BTC traded around $63,000—as a “durable” market bottom. 

Potential Start Of A New Bitcoin Bull Market

In Grayscale’s view, the rebound since that low has been meaningful. The firm’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, said the BTC price bottomed at roughly $63,000 and has since climbed more than 20%, reaching about $76,000. 

That level, he noted, is slightly above the average cost basis for recent buyers, which matters because it can reduce the incentive to sell after a drop. In other words, if many holders are no longer underwater, selling pressure may ease at a time when buyers are trying to regain control.

For Bitcoin transacted over the past one to three months, Grayscale says the realized price is about $74,000. That implies many newer buyers are already back near break-even. 

If BTC continues rising in the days ahead, more recent participants could shift into positive profit and loss, which Grayscale treats as a potential early sign of a bull-market transition.

In that framework, the Feb. 5 low is not just a statistical low—it’s presented as the point where the market may have stabilized enough to start a new upward phase.

$78,000 Still Holds The Key

Adding to the bullish case, Bitcoin whales reportedly added about 45,000 BTC last week, the fastest weekly accumulation pace since July 2025. Long-term holders, meanwhile, have reportedly accumulated more than 1 million BTC over the past three months.

Glassnode data also indicates that upward momentum has cooled somewhat. Even so, it still points to strong buyer interest, which could help cushion the market and reduce the odds of a sharp slide. At the same time, trading activity on centralized exchanges has risen, suggesting ongoing participation rather than a sudden exit.

In the Bitcoin (ETF) sector, Glassnode points to several indicators improving, including an increase in the MVRV ratio alongside netflow. These signals are described as consistent with improved profitability expectations and stronger investor interest.