Bitcoin (BTC) Rebounds 12% in 2 Weeks, Yet Analyst Believes The ‘Max Pain’ Could be on the Way

Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a notable recovery over the past 14 days, with its price hovering around $75,000.

One of the cryptocurrency’s early supporters, though, warned that the bottom of the cycle is yet to be reached, predicting a major crash ahead.

Prepare for ‘Max Pain’

Davinci Jeremie – the early Bitcoin advocate who went viral in 2013 for urging people to buy BTC at $1 – is among the latest crypto commentators to sound the alarm of a potential price crisis.

He found similarities between the dump this February, when the asset’s valuation suddenly plummeted below $60,000 to the one from June 2022. Later on, the analyst alerted traders and investors that “the max pain isn’t in yet,” foreseeing one capitulation event like the FTX crash before BTC tumbles to its cycle low.

The meltdown of the once-leading crypto exchange occurred in November 2022 and triggered a broader market collapse, massive liquidations, and reputational damage to the entire industry. BTC, for instance, briefly nosedived under $16,000.

X user Chiefy also made a bearish forecast, claiming that the asset could soon tumble to the $35,000-$38,000 range. For their part, Doctor Profit described the asset’s resurgence as “a large trap for the bulls,” arguing that the real question now is how high the valuation can climb before a sharp correction sets in.

‘Make-or-Break’ Moment

The renowned analyst Ali Martinez added his name to the long list of people discussing Bitcoin’s performance as of late. He believes the asset is at “a make-or-break” point, claiming that for the third time in six months, BTC is testing the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) as resistance.

He reminded that in October (right after the formation of that pattern) the price plunged by 30%. A similar thing happened at the start of the year when the valuation plunged by 39%.

“Today: We are testing this exact level again. A third rejection here would be a major structural failure. It could trigger a triple top effect, potentially sending Bitcoin back down to the yearly low at $59,800,” Martinez said.

At the same time, the analyst claimed that closing above the 100-day SMA could open “a direct path” toward $80,000-$84,000 and confirm that “the macro correction might be over.”

The recent whale activity and the declining amount of coins stored on exchanges support the bullish scenario. Large investors have acquired 10,000 BTC (worth roughly $750 million at current rates) over the last 96 hours: a move that could stimulate smaller players to follow suit.

Meanwhile, there are now fewer than 2.7 million coins situated on centralized exchanges, representing the lowest level since 2019. Such a development shows strong investor conviction and reduces immediate selling pressure.