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Cointelegraph1 min read
Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst
TL;DR
Bitcoin recently reached highs above $76,000, but analysts caution that it's too early to declare a new bull market due to weak new capital inflows and negative growth rates. Current data indicates that many active holders are in a loss position.
Key points
- Bitcoin hit range highs above $76,000
- Analysts say it's premature to declare a bull market
- New capital inflows remain weak
- Bitcoin's growth rate has been negative for 105 days
- Many active holders are in a loss position
Bitcoin (BTC) hit range highs above $76,000 on Wednesday, but Glassnode analysts say data suggest that calling for the start of a new bull market is premature.
New capital inflows have stayed weak, with Bitcoin’s growth rate remaining negative across all 105 trading days in 2026, highlighting a gap between stable price action and limited new demand.
Bitcoin profitability signal remains unresolved
Glassnode analyst CryptoViz.art uses the true market mean (TMM) to estimate the average cost basis of active BTC investors. The metric divides investor capitalization by liveliness-adjusted circulating supply, filtering out inactive coins and the lost supply.
Bitcoin crossed below this level on Jan. 31 and has stayed there for 75 days. The move placed the average active holder in a loss position, with a peak drawdown of 20% and a current gap of about 5% below the entry level.
Bitcoin's true market mean. Source: Glassnode/X
Historical comparisons show 10 similar breaks since 2016, with durations ranging from two days to over 11 months. The deepest drawdowns reached 57% during the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 cycles, while the March 2020 event saw a 40% decline over 49 days. The analyst added,
“That said, 75 days is still early. The 2018 and 2022 episodes didn't bottom until months 5-9. The signal isn't "all clear" — it's watch closely.”
Reclaiming the TMM, currently at $78,013, is key for active investors to return to profit, and it has aligned with momentum resets in earlier cycles.
Related: Adam Back says Bitcoin’s post-quantum shift may reveal true Satoshi stash
Q&A
Why do analysts believe it's too early to call a Bitcoin bull market?
Analysts point to weak new capital inflows and negative growth rates over the past 105 trading days as reasons for caution.
What is the current profitability status of Bitcoin investors?
Many active Bitcoin holders are currently at a loss, with a peak drawdown of 20% and an average position about 5% below their entry level.
How long has Bitcoin's growth rate been negative?
Bitcoin's growth rate has remained negative for all 105 trading days in 2026.
