Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High

Bitcoin’s derivatives market is showing signs of a fresh bullish rebuild, according to a new morning brief from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., who said a rising Bitcoin Positioning Index alongside a sharp increase in futures open interest points to new risk-taking rather than a short-covering bounce. For traders watching whether the recent recovery has structural backing, that distinction matters.

In Adler’s framework, the key signal is the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Positioning Index, which has climbed to 4.5, its highest reading in four months. The daily index itself rose to 40.1, while Bitcoin futures open interest measured over a 30-day change increased 14.5%, one of the strongest readings in the last 120 days.

Bitcoin Positioning Index | Source: Axel Adler Jr

Bitcoin Futures Show New Risk-On Setup

Taken together, Adler argues, those figures suggest the market is not merely squeezing out stale bearish bets. It is adding fresh exposure. He described the change as a notable turn from the setup seen earlier this year. In February, the SMA-30d bottomed at -10.9 as Bitcoin fell below $63,000. Since then, the indicator has recovered by more than 15 points, moving from what Adler framed as a damaged positioning structure into one that is improving steadily rather than spiking and fading.

The report places emphasis on the combination of signals. Adler wrote that if the Positioning SMA-30d rises while open interest falls, the market is more likely clearing out old positions. If both rise together, by contrast, it suggests new capital and new leverage are entering the trade.

That is, in his view, what the market is showing now. “What we are seeing now is exactly the second scenario,” Adler wrote. “OI 30D Change % stands at +14.5%. This is one of the two strongest readings over the last 120 days. Moreover, 23 out of the last 30 days closed with positive OI. This is a sustained upward leverage rebuild.”