Bitcoin caught between critical onchain support and an options showdown

The price of bitcoin BTC$76,987.42 has been closely tracking the 2026 realized price, currently around $76,200, according to Checkonchain, since the beginning of April.

The realized price is the average onchain acquisition cost of all bitcoin that last moved within a specific year. In other words, it reflects the aggregate cost basis of market participants from 2026, and some market participants see it as a more meaningful gauge than traditional psychological support or resistance price levels.

In February, when bitcoin plunged to nearly $60,000, the market found support close to the 2023 realized price, reinforcing the growing importance of these cohort cost-basis levels in shaping market structure.

This weekend, the largest cryptocurrency briefly dropped to $74,500 before rebounding from its 128-day moving average, another closely watched technical level.

At its current price, bitcoin is trading below two major onchain metrics clustered around $77,000: the true market mean and the short-term holder cost basis. Both levels are widely monitored as indicators of broader market sentiment and short-term positioning.

BTC Price + Key Levels (CheckonChain)

Attention is also turning toward the May 29 options expiry on Deribit, where roughly $6.6 billion in open interest is set to expire.

The largest concentration of call options, about $600 million, sits at the $80,000 strike price. The largest put positioning is concentrated at $75,000, with around $377 million in open interest. Market makers and traders are incentivized to keep price action pinned between these levels as expiry approaches, contributing to the current period of compressed volatility.