Bitcoin ETFs Extend Longest Win Streak Since September, But Spot Demand Lags

The imbalance is visible in liquidation data. Since April 13, short liquidations have totaled roughly $2.8 billion, compared to $1.8 billion in long liquidations, per CoinGlass, a clear sign that bearish traders have been caught off guard.

Because bearish traders continue adding short exposure, Otychenko said there is still room for further upside if more shorts are forced to unwind. However, for the rally to become sustainable, stronger spot demand, increased on-chain activity, and broader participation are necessary. Without those, a correction may follow.

Ju's warning highlights a similar disconnect.

Though ETFs are absorbing supply, spot buying across exchanges, where the majority of trading occurs, is not keeping pace. That setup signals increased leverage from futures investors rather than genuine spot accumulation.

A meaningful share of recent ETF demand may be tied to cash-and-carry trades, in which institutions buy IBIT shares while shorting CME futures to capture the spread, Otychenko noted.

This strategy is market-neutral, meaning not all the inflows should be viewed as outright bullish conviction. In a cash-and-carry trade, institutions buy spot Bitcoin ETF shares while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures on CME, profiting from the price difference regardless of whether Bitcoin goes up or down.

Supporting Bitcoin's uncertain uptrend outlook is the negative funding rate, a fee paid by traders to maintain parity between spot and futures prices. A negative funding rate indicates investors are opening short or bearish positions.

Options markets' 25-delta skew is also negative, hovering between -2% and -5%, suggesting investors are paying a premium for downside protection.

“Funding rates are near historical lows, while long-term holders are showing record levels of accumulation,” Otychenko said. “One of these two groups is likely to be proven very wrong. That kind of tension usually does not last long, and when it resolves, the move tends to be fast and decisive.”

Until spot demand catches up, the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remains uncertain.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $77,800, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours, but up roughly 3.5% over the past week, according to CoinGecko data.

Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, assign a 75% chance that Bitcoin's next move could propel it to $84,000 first. However, investors remain bearish in the short term, assigning a 42% chance that the leading crypto closes above $78,000 on Monday.