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Bitcoin is nearing a critical point with a $15 billion long liquidation imbalance below its current price, indicating potential volatility. A modest price drop could trigger significant liquidations in the market.
Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture as market data reveals a massive long liquidation imbalance, with an estimated $15 billion in leveraged positions sitting below the current price. This concentration of downside liquidity creates a high-risk environment where even a modest drop could trigger cascading liquidations.
Bitcoin is developing one of the most extreme liquidation imbalances, as long liquidations currently outweigh short liquidations. A crypto trader known as Max Trades on X highlighted that the current liquidation data showed a massive concentration of long positions sitting below the market, with an estimated $15 billion in long liquidations.
Meanwhile, only around $3 billion in short liquidations remains above current price levels. This creates a striking 5:1 imbalance, suggesting the market is heavily skewed toward downside liquidity. Despite this setup, BTC has continued grinding higher, with upward momentum largely driven by new short positions entering the market.

Source: Chart from Max Trades on X
However, if shorts stop providing fuel for the move and market makers turn their focus toward the dense liquidity below the price, the market may become vulnerable to a sharp liquidation cascade.
Bitcoin continues to show strength, but several internal market signals suggest the current rally may be losing momentum in the short term. Analyst Kaz has stated that BTC is currently trading within a relatively tight range around the $81,500 level, while trading volume has started to fade.
The current long liquidation imbalance for Bitcoin is estimated at $15 billion, significantly outweighing short liquidations.
This imbalance creates a high-risk environment where even a small price drop could lead to cascading liquidations, potentially causing further declines.
The ratio of long to short liquidations in Bitcoin is approximately 5:1, with long liquidations heavily concentrated below the current price.

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At the same time, Open Interest (OI) remains stable and flat, indicating that large new leveraged positions are not entering the market. The perpetual futures CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) is still climbing, showing that buyers remain active, but the pace of that momentum has slowed noticeably. Spot CVD is also trending higher, suggesting genuine spot demand is still supporting the move, but recent candles indicate that the strength has started to weaken.
Meanwhile, shorts continue to get liquidated periodically, helping sustain the BTC upward grind, while the squeeze is becoming smaller. Despite these warning signs, the broader internals still favor the bulls for now. When price grinds higher on fading volume, the CVDs show slow momentum, and open interest is flat.
Kaz noted that the move is weakening and is due for a pullback, and making a decision based on this move is not optimal. The focus now shifts to monitoring changes in open interest and spot CVD for clearer direction. With midweek volatility (Wednesday) in play, BTC can still turn bearish. If BTC price pushes higher before the New York Open (NYO), without meaningful support from open interest and spot demand, a dump during the NYO is likely.
BTC trading at $81,064 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com