Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return

Bitcoin has triggered another daily Kumo breakout, putting a historically bullish technical signal back in focus. Analyst Josh Olszewicz, who posts as CarpeNoctom, shared a chart on X tracking BTC’s forward performance after every daily Kumo breakout since 2015.

“BTC forward performance of daily kumo breakouts since 2015,” CarpeNoctom wrote, alongside a TradingView chart showing the latest breakout dated May 6, 2026.

Bitcoin forward performance of daily kumo breakouts since 2015 | Source: X @CarpeNoctom

What This Means For Bitcoin Price

The historical table attached to the chart shows a notably positive skew across completed signals. After prior daily Kumo breakouts, Bitcoin was higher one week later in 22 of 26 cases, with an average gain of 6.21% and a median gain of 5.08%. One month out, BTC was positive in 20 of 26 cases, with an average return of 14.05% and a median of 12.00%.

The signal’s stronger historical profile appears over longer windows. Three months after breakout, Bitcoin was higher in 18 of 26 cases, with an average gain of 39.48% and a median of 26.37%. Six months later, BTC was positive in 22 of 26 cases, with an average return of 74.36% and a median of 46.04%. The one-year data is even more striking: across completed samples, Bitcoin was higher in 22 of 25 cases, with an average gain of 186.01% and a median gain of 129.46%.

The largest one-year forward returns came during major bull-market phases. Breakouts on Sept. 4, 2016 and Oct. 7, 2016 preceded one-year gains of 615.08% and 617.09%, respectively. The April 1, 2017 signal was followed by a 525.35% one-year advance, while the April 23, 2020 breakout led to a 581.82% one-year gain. Another October 2020 breakout produced a 237.35% three-month move, a 430.84% six-month move, and a 393.65% one-year return.

The chart also shows that the signal has not been uniformly reliable. Breakouts during weaker or late-cycle conditions produced negative forward returns in several cases. The Aug. 13, 2021 breakout was followed by a 48.89% one-year decline, while the Oct. 1, 2021 signal preceded a 59.90% one-year drop. More recently, the April 22, 2025 breakout showed positive returns over one week, one month, three months, and six months, but was down 16.31% after one year.