Bitcoin Nears $75K As Risk-on Sentiment, Geopolitical Landscape Improves

In brief

• Bitcoin is up around 13% since the Iran conflict began on February 28, outperforming the S&P 500 and gold.
• The options market shows easing bearish pressure reflected in the improving 25-delta skew, signaling reduced demand for downside protection.
• Myriad users see a 75% chance that oil hits $120 next, despite the ceasefire and falling crude prices.

Bitcoin’s sustained uptrend over the past few weeks comes amid an improving risk-on sentiment across the broader financial markets.

The leading crypto is trading at around $74,420, up 5.2% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. The S&P 500 index closed Monday with a 1% gain, marking its highest daily close since the U.S.-Iran war began on February 28.

Bitcoin is up around 13% since February 28, underscoring the asset’s safe-haven behavior during times of crisis. The S&P 500 and Japan’s Nikkei are up roughly 1%, while gold is down around 9% in this period.

Its performance reflects improving risk-on sentiment, as evidenced by easing bearish positioning in the options market and ETF and spot buying, according to Glassnode’s latest report.

It is also a result of the “de-escalation signals in US-Iran/Middle East tensions,” Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at cryptocurrency exchange Bitrue, told Decrypt, noting that “easing oil spikes and risk-off pressure, combined with a softer core CPI print and rebounding spot Bitcoin ETF inflows absorbing supply,” have driven the move.

The uptrend comes as Iran and the US agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire on April 8.

However, the situation remains fragile, with U.S. blockades of Iranian ports and the potential for another round of negotiations, as U.S. President Donald Trump said Iranian officials “want to work a deal,” according to a report from the Associated Press.

Bitcoin’s outlook shows considerable improvement, especially in the options market, amid a relatively stable geopolitical landscape.