Bitcoin Nears $75K As Risk-on Sentiment, Geopolitical Landscape Improves

In brief

• Bitcoin is up around 13% since the Iran conflict began on February 28, outperforming the S&P 500 and gold.
• The options market shows easing bearish pressure reflected in the improving 25-delta skew, signaling reduced demand for downside protection.
• Myriad users see a 75% chance that oil hits $120 next, despite the ceasefire and falling crude prices.

Bitcoin’s sustained uptrend over the past few weeks comes amid an improving risk-on sentiment across the broader financial markets.

The leading crypto is trading at around $74,420, up 5.2% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. The S&P 500 index closed Monday with a 1% gain, marking its highest daily close since the U.S.-Iran war began on February 28.

Bitcoin is up around 13% since February 28, underscoring the asset’s safe-haven behavior during times of crisis. The S&P 500 and Japan’s Nikkei are up roughly 1%, while gold is down around 9% in this period.

Its performance reflects improving risk-on sentiment, as evidenced by easing bearish positioning in the options market and ETF and spot buying, according to Glassnode’s latest report.

It is also a result of the “de-escalation signals in US-Iran/Middle East tensions,” Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at cryptocurrency exchange Bitrue, told Decrypt, noting that “easing oil spikes and risk-off pressure, combined with a softer core CPI print and rebounding spot Bitcoin ETF inflows absorbing supply,” have driven the move.

The uptrend comes as Iran and the US agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire on April 8.

However, the situation remains fragile, with U.S. blockades of Iranian ports and the potential for another round of negotiations, as U.S. President Donald Trump said Iranian officials “want to work a deal,” according to a report from the Associated Press.

Bitcoin’s outlook shows considerable improvement, especially in the options market, amid a relatively stable geopolitical landscape.

The 25-delta skew, which measures the bearish positioning and sentiment, has improved from -10% to -4.5%, according to Deribit data. During a downtrend, if the skew continues to decline, it indicates that investors are paying a premium for downside protection.

However, the improvement in skew indicates that investors have reduced their bearish exposure, suggesting that selling pressure is easing.

“Despite this, a decline in the Volatility Spread implies continued cautious sentiment,” Glassnode analysts said.

The recent uptick in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF netflow suggests that “traditional finance participants continue to show robust demand and interest in Bitcoin,” the analysts added, highlighting last week’s $786 million inflow.

Bitcoin’s recent move toward $75,000 is primarily spot-driven, Adziima noted, suggesting that strong ETF inflows along with declining futures open interest and funding rates point to “deleveraging and healthier momentum.”

If the leading crypto manages to hold above $75,000, “it could open the path toward $80,000,” particularly if “ETF inflows and institutional demand remain supportive,” Wenny Cai, Founder of Anchored Finance, told Decrypt.

However, sticky inflation, restrictive Federal Reserve policies, and deterioration in global risk sentiment, either due to the end of the two-week truce and an escalation of Middle East tensions, could reintroduce volatility and push Bitcoin back into its prior range, experts warned.

Despite the bullishness, users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, have assigned a 4.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates by more than 25 basis points before July, indicating that investors remain cautious.

Although crude oil fell below $100 per barrel, Myriad users still believe its next move could push it past the $120 mark, assigning a 75% chance to this outcome.