Bitcoin Price Analysis: On-Chain Metric Says BTC Is Coiling for a Big Move

Bitcoin is trading at $77.5k as the third week of May draws to a close. The market is recovering quietly from the $75k–$76k support zone after last week’s failed breakout attempt above $80k.

The structure has absorbed the pullback without breaking, the ascending channel floor continues to rise, and the on-chain picture tells a story that the price chart alone undersells. Sentiment is rebuilding from levels last seen at the very beginning of the previous bull market.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, the ascending white channel from the February low has held, with the asset bouncing from the upper edge of the $75k–$76k support zone today, rising toward $77.5k. The 100-day moving average is now sloping upward to approximately $72k and is now converging with that same support zone. This will likely create a strengthening combined support floor that rises a little further every week.

The RSI is also hovering around 50, showing little signs of directional momentum. A recovery back above $80k and a breakout above the 200-day moving average nearby are the immediate requirements to restore bullish momentum.

If this scenario materializes, the $88k–$90k band is the structural target above. On the other hand, a daily candle close below $75k and the 100-day MA near $72k would be the first serious structural damage of the recovery.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The bounce from the $75k–$76k support zone has lifted the 4-hour RSI from the low-to-mid 30s back to approximately 50. The asset is now tracking toward the bearish Fair Value Gap marked on the chart near $80k. This is a price imbalance left by the sharp sell-off from the $82k highs, which the underlying asset typically returns to fill before resolving direction.

The FVG is the immediate short-term target on the upside. A clean move through it would signal that the pullback is fully absorbed and the next push toward the $82k supply zone and the upper boundary of the daily channel is building. However, failure to trade through the FVG and a rollover back below $75k would suggest the selling pressure from the failed breakout is not yet exhausted, opening the path toward the lower demand zone at $70k–$72k as the next test.