Bitcoin's price has rallied to $78,000, indicating the start of an uptrend, but analysts warn that gains may be limited to $84,000 due to resistance levels.
Market analysts said Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest rally to $78,000 means that the “uptrend has began,” but the upside could be capped at $84,000, based on several key metrics.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin profitability metrics say that BTC has entered the early stages of a “real rally.”
BTC price recovery may face stiff resistance at $84,000, with a pullback likely.
Bitcoin’s recent price recovery toward $76,000 has pushed it more than 26% above its sub-$60,000 multi-year low reached on Feb. 6.
This was accompanied by an increase in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which hit an eight-month high of 2.87, after dropping as low as 0.62 in early February.
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SOPR is a metric used to show whether Bitcoin investors have made a profit or loss compared to when they first held Bitcoin. This ratio has historically marked the short-term bottom for BTC when it hits its lowest point.
“The $BTC SOPR Ratio shows that $BTC has already broken out of the bottom and is rising,” CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 said in a Tuesday post on X, adding:
“The bottom for $BTC was formed last February. The rally is already in progress.”
Bitcoin SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant
Similarly, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), the difference between total profits and losses currently held by investors, has flipped positive for the first time since early January.
This suggests that the downtrend for Bitcoin has ended, and the “real rally of this cycle has begun,” CW8900 in another X post.
Bitcoin is currently priced at $78,000.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price could face resistance at $84,000.
Bitcoin profitability metrics indicate that the rally has begun and is in its early stages.
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Bitcoin NUPL. Source: CryptoQuant
This structurally resembles conditions seen in early stages of previous bull markets, where the NUPL recovered from extended periods below zero as Bitcoin embarked on a sustained rally.
According to Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 1.1 million BTC at an average cost of $84,000, creating a potential resistance zone. This concentration suggests many investors may sell at break-even, potentially stalling Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Bitcoin cost basis distribution chart. Source: Glassnode
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s immediate resistance is at $78,000, where the true market mean currently sits.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF cost basis at $83,100 is seen as the next key hurdle.
BTC: Average cost basis of US spot ETFs. Source: Glassnode
Analyst AlphaBTC said the BTC/USD pair might rise higher to fill the CME gap at $84,000, which was created at the start of February.
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: AlphaBTC
As Cointelegraph reported, a close above the $76,000-$78,000 resistance zone would confirm that the buyers are in control, clearing the path for a potential rally to $84,000.