Bitcoin Rally May Be A Trap As Whales Sell Into Strength

Bitcoin’s rebound from the February 6 low at $60,000 is showing early signs of structural improvement, but the move still looks more like a bear market rally than a confirmed breakout, according to CryptoQuant analyst Maartun. In an April 20 video, the analyst argued that while long-term holders are accumulating and strategic capital is entering the market, persistent selling from short-term holders and whales is still capping upside.

Maartun framed the current setup as a question of market character rather than raw price performance. Bitcoin is trading around $75,000, roughly 24% above what he described as the bear market low, but he said that alone does not settle whether the market is turning higher in a durable way.

“The real question isn’t how far the price has moved. It’s what kind of move this actually is,” he said. “Is this the start of a new trend or just another rally that gets sold into? And that distinction matters because misreading this phase is exactly how capital gets misallocated.”

Bitcoin On-Chain Data Still Flashes Caution

His core argument is that the foundation beneath the market has improved even if price has not yet confirmed it. Over the last 30 days, long-term holder supply has increased by about 354,000 BTC, a shift he described as “structural accumulation.” In Maartun’s reading, that signals coins are being absorbed and removed from active circulation by participants less sensitive to short-term volatility.

“That’s not a small number. That’s structural accumulation,” he said. “Coins are being absorbed and taken out of active circulation. Long-term holders aren’t reacting to short-term volatility. So when their supply increases, it usually means the market is quietly building a stronger base.”

That constructive backdrop, however, is only one side of the picture. Maartun said a large part of the recent price push appears to have come from a more tactical mix of strategic buying and speculative positioning. He highlighted a rapid capital raise by Strategy, which he said brought in about $2.66 billion in 48 hours, including $1.16 billion on April 13 and another $1.56 billion on April 14.

He argued that such an aggressive capital injection would normally be expected to produce a stronger market response. When that does not happen, the implication is that substantial supply is meeting demand.

On that front, Maartun pointed to two seller cohorts. The first is short-term holders, who have moved roughly 60,000 BTC to exchanges. Crucially, he said this is happening while SOPR remains below 1, meaning those holders are exiting at a loss rather than selling from a position of strength.