Bitcoin's bullish momentum runs into Pentagon-backed inflation warning

Just as bitcoin BTC$77,418.89 appeared to have built momentum for a breakout above $80,000, macro uncertainty reemerged as a headwind.

The most notable development came from the Pentagon, which told U.S. lawmakers in a classified briefing that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil chokepoint, could take at least six months, and the process will begin only after the U.S.-Iran conflict ends. The briefing also warned that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated through the midterm elections, according to the Washington Post.

Persistently high energy costs risk keeping inflation sticky, leaving the Federal Reserve with limited room to cut interest rates, a negative backdrop for risk assets. Bitcoin, in particular, remains highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions rather than real economic activity. Rising costs for essentials like fuel and food could also reduce investors’ willingness to allocate capital to speculative assets.

These risks are already showing up in markets. WTI crude has climbed to around $95 from $79 late last week, while government bond yields are rising across major economies. The U.S. 10-year yield has increased by eight basis points to 4.32% this week, and it's U.K. counterpart has risen by 18 basis points to 4.96%.

“Oil prices are rising alongside yields and widening volatility spreads, signaling tighter financial conditions and increasing market risks,” said Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management.

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Speaking of key indicators, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained demand, with funds seeing their fastest inflows in a month based on the seven-day moving average of net flows tracked by Glassnode.

Still, some analysts are urging caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market.

“The recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market. Meanwhile, spot demand is still contracting (although at a slower pace). The same happened in January, when Bitcoin peaked at $98K. There are risks of a correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said on X.

The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has hit a record high of $188.88 billion. Meanwhile, speculation in non-serious tokens such as M$4.5820, is reaching fever pitch, with overcrowding in bullish bets. Stay alert!