Bitcoin Sinks as the Senate's Clarity Act Showdown Looms

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is parked at a neutral 50.5, right at the midpoint of the 0-100 scale. Bitcoin isn't overbought or oversold on momentum alone, which means there's room for this move to run further in either direction before hitting the kind of extreme reading that usually attracts mean-reversion buyers.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator has been flashing "on" for a full week, with momentum reading -1.17 and still falling. Negative, falling momentum inside an active squeeze usually means sellers are winning the coil—when it finally releases, the break tends to go the way the momentum was already leaning.

Fibonacci levels (natural supports and resistances) drawn on the leg from the June low near $68,858 to the September high of $82,281 tell the cleanest version of the story. Bitcoin has broken decisively below the $79,113 level and is now testing the space just above the 50% retracement at $75,569. A daily close below that level opens the door to the next zone at $73,986, and in a deeper flush, the 78.6% level at $71,731.

Clarity, or the lack of it

The bigger overhang today has nothing to do with charts. The Senate is set to hold a cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act at 2:15 p.m. ET—the procedural step needed to formally open debate on the bill. It needs 60 votes in a fully seated Senate, and that math has looked shakier by the week.

Prediction markets tracking the bill's odds of becoming law in 2026 have slid heavily as September rolled around, before ticking back up modestly in the past few days on fresh concessions.

Myriad: Will Congress pass the Clarity Act? Click to make your prediction.

A failed cloture vote wouldn't kill the Clarity Act outright. It would shelve comprehensive crypto market-structure legislation until after the midterms, leaving the industry to keep operating under the SEC and CFTC's current patchwork of rules and enforcement actions—exactly the scenario the market looks to be hedging against today.

Both catalysts land within about 24 hours of each other: the cloture vote this afternoon, the Fed's rate decision tomorrow.