‘Ethereum’s Price Should Have Dropped Already’ – Analyst Explains The On-Chain Signal Behind The Warning
Ethereum's price surge raises concerns as on-chain signals diverge.
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Bitcoin Slips Below Key Holder Cost Basis Ahead Of $1.74B Options Expiry
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $78,900, indicating many recent buyers are at a loss. This comes ahead of a significant options expiry event involving $1.74 billion in contracts.
Key points
- Bitcoin is trading below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $78,900
- Many recent buyers are sitting on losses
- 23,000 Bitcoin options contracts worth $1.74 billion are expiring
- The put-call ratio is at 1.10
- Support is seen in the $65,000–$70,000 range
Deribit
Bitcoin is trading below a key cost threshold that short-term holders paid to acquire it — a sign that many recent buyers are sitting on losses heading into one of the largest options expiry events of the month.
Bitcoin: Bears Hold The Edge Going Into Expiry
Glassnode data shows Bitcoin is currently priced under the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $78,900, and also below the True Market Mean of $78,000.
Support is seen further down, in the $65,000–$70,000 range. That backdrop sets a cautious tone as roughly 23,000 Bitcoin options contracts — worth $1.74 billion — are set to expire today on derivatives exchange Deribit.
The put-call ratio for those contracts sits at 1.10, meaning more traders are betting on price declines than on gains.
Bitcoin’s max pain price — the level where the greatest number of options expire worthless — is $76,000, slightly below where it was trading at press time around $77,200.
Deribit has flagged the settlement as one to watch closely, with data showing a 95% probability that Bitcoin options expire above that $76,000 mark. Heavy volume is concentrated at the $75,500 and $77,000 strike prices.
🚨 May 1st Options Expiry Alert.
At 08:00 UTC today, ~$2.14B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: ~$1.74B notional | Put/Call: 1.10 | Max Pain: $76,000$ETH: ~$394M notional | Put/Call: 0.95 | Max Pain: $2,325BTC spot pinned right at max pain. ETH trading… pic.twitter.com/UC2GkTnBMb
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) May 1, 2026
In the past 24 hours, the put-call ratio for Bitcoin trading activity climbed to 0.73, while overall volume dropped. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates unchanged contributed to the slowdown.
Ethereum Sits Below Its Own Pain Point
Ethereum is facing similar pressure. More than 175,000 ETH options worth $400 million are expiring on Deribit today, with a put-call ratio of 0.95. In the last 24 hours alone, put volume rose sharply past call volume, pushing that ratio to 1.17 — a sign traders are adjusting for potential downside.
Q&A
What is the current price of Bitcoin compared to the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis?
Bitcoin is currently priced below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $78,900.
How much Bitcoin options are set to expire today?
Approximately 23,000 Bitcoin options contracts, worth $1.74 billion, are set to expire today.
What does a put-call ratio of 1.10 indicate for Bitcoin traders?
A put-call ratio of 1.10 indicates that more traders are betting on price declines than on gains.
What is the support range for Bitcoin as it approaches options expiry?
Support for Bitcoin is seen in the $65,000–$70,000 range.
