Bitcoin steady as S&P 500 hits record, but options market isn't buying the peace trade

Bitcoin climbed to $74,935 in Asian hours Thursday, up 0.7% over 24 hours and 5.4% on the week, as U.S. equities closed at record highs on reports the U.S. and Iran had reached an "in principle" agreement to extend negotiations past next week's April 7 ceasefire expiry.

The S&P 500 finished up 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4%, both all-time highs, capping a two-week rally from late March lows.

Ether led major tokens, up 8.1% on the week to $2,360, extending the outperformance against bitcoin that emerged earlier this week. XRP gained 3.6% to $1.41, dogecoin rose 4.8% to $0.098, and solana added 2.2% to $85.

The equity rally is running ahead of what other markets are willing to confirm. Long-end Treasury yields barely moved. Gold held near $4,800. Brent crude ticked up to $95 as the U.S. pressed ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.

"Stocks are basically expressing their view that the war in the Persian Gulf is all but over," Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note.

Crypto's derivatives desks aren't pricing the same conviction. QCP Capital wrote in a Telegram broadcast on Wednesday that bitcoin's rally is spot-led rather than part of a broader re-risking.

Funding rates on bitcoin perpetuals are still negative and open interest has softened, suggesting shorts are leaning against the move rather than capitulating. Front-end implied volatility remains muted, one-month vol is trading below three-month, and 30-day 25-delta risk reversals still show more demand for downside protection than upside exposure.

Put simply, options markets are pricing caution even as spot rallies. The cost of bitcoin options expiring in the next few weeks is unusually calm for a real breakout, and traders are still paying up for protection against a drop rather than betting on more upside. That's the signature of a bounce, not a trend change.

"Markets may be trading the ceasefire angle, but the core risk remains unresolved," QCP wrote. The firm pointed to the gap between Iran's 60% enriched uranium and the U.S. demand for below 20% as the structural issue a framework headline cannot close.

The ether outperformance is the one signal that can't be explained by bitcoin-specific flows.

The widely-watched ETH/BTC ratio - which tracks the price of ether against bitcoin - climbed to roughly 0.0315 on Wednesday, recovering from February's 2026 low near 0.028 and marking the first sustained stretch of ether strength against bitcoin in months.

Ethereum's on-chain fundamentals have been diverging from price for weeks, with network transactions hitting a record 200.4 million in Q1 and stablecoin supply reaching an all-time high of $180 billion.