Bitcoin to Outperform Gold if ETF Hedging Eases, JPMorgan Says

Bitcoin may have more room to gain ground against gold if investors start unwinding some of the defensive positions surrounding cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, according to JPMorgan analysts.

The Wall Street banking giant has pointed to a difference between investor positioning in Bitcoin and gold ETFs. Institutional exposure to both assets remains substantial, but Bitcoin investors are still hedging much more aggressively against downside risk.

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believe that this unusually defensive positioning could eventually work in Bitcoin's favor if sentiment improves and the demand for protection starts to fade.

Both Bitcoin and gold experienced renewed ETF inflows following the Federal Reserve's July meeting as investors returned to the so-called debasement trade.

Bitcoin still trails gold in ETF recovery

Gold has so far enjoyed a substantially stronger recovery in ETF demand.

According to JPMorgan, inflows into gold ETFs have already compensated for all of the outflows recorded earlier in 2026.

Bitcoin ETFs, by comparison, have recovered only roughly half of their previous outflows.

At first glance, that might appear to put gold in the stronger position. However, JPMorgan sees another important factor beneath the headline flow numbers.

Short interest in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) remains close to its highest level of 2026. Short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), meanwhile, is below its historical average.

However, the options market tells a similar story. IBIT currently has a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD, another indication that Bitcoin investors are buying more downside protection.

JPMorgan argues that this disparity could create an interesting setup. If investors become more confident and start removing those hedges, Bitcoin could receive additional support relative to gold.

JPMorgan's changing Bitcoin outlook in 2026

The bank entered 2026 with a relatively constructive view of the digital asset market. In February, Panigirtzoglou's team said it remained positive on crypto for the year. 

At the time, the analysts also estimated Bitcoin's production cost at roughly $77,000, down from around $90,000 at the beginning of the year. 

The team also reiterated a much longer-term, volatility-adjusted Bitcoin valuation of $266,000 based on a comparison with gold. 

However, JPMorgan's tone became notably more cautious as 2026 progressed.

In June, JPMorgan said Bitcoin had spent five consecutive months below its estimated production cost.