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Bitcoin trades above a make-or-break level ahead of Warsh hearing
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading above $75,000, a critical level for bulls, but analysts caution about potential volatility due to the upcoming expiration of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. Market reactions could vary based on whether tensions escalate or de-escalate.
Key points
- Bitcoin trading above $75,000 is critical for bulls
- U.S.–Iran ceasefire expiration could impact markets
- Potential for oil prices to rise above March highs
- Bitcoin showed resilience during the March conflict
Mentioned in this story
MarexDonald TrumpIranPakistan
Bitcoin BTC$76,675.48 is trading with a positive bias above the $75,000 level, which CoinDesk recently highlighted as a critical threshold for bulls to maintain control.
Still, some observers are urging caution, noting that prices need to hold above that level through Wednesday, when the U.S.–Iran ceasefire is set to end.
"The ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday evening Washington time, and the market has to price two paths, extension and de-escalation versus renewed escalation and oil stress. That is why even with BTC strong, the tape can still gap fast. It is headline risk with a timer," analysts at Marex said in an email to CoinDesk.
An escalation could take oil prices well above the March high of $119, potentially sending Asian and global equity markets into a tailspin. The question remains whether bitcoin, which held relatively steady around $70,000 during the March conflict, will remain resilient or come under pressure along with the broader market.
As of the time of writing, no delegation from Iran had departed for the talks in Pakistan. On Monday, President Donald Trump warned of a major escalation in the conflict if the ceasefire ends without a deal.
Also on analysts’ radar is Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chair, scheduled for Tuesday. Warsh has a reputation as an "inflation hawk" who opposed interest-rate cuts and quantitative easing following the 2008 crash.
So what he says during the session could move markets. "His remarks could act as a near-term catalyst, particularly if they reinforce expectations of policy easing," digital assets trading firm QCP Capital said in a note.
Speaking of the broader market, major cryptocurrencies such as ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) have risen by less than 2% over the past 24 hours, underperforming bitcoin. Smaller tokens such as XLM and TON have risen by more than 5% each. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index is up over 3%.
Notably, the DeFi Select Index added 2%, which is surprising given the industry-wide fallout from the weekend hack of KelpDAO. That saw the attacker drain rsETH, a liquid restaking token widely used as collateral on several DeFi platforms.
Q&A
What is the significance of Bitcoin trading above $75,000?
Trading above $75,000 is crucial for bulls to maintain control over Bitcoin's price movement.
What could happen if the U.S.–Iran ceasefire expires?
If the ceasefire expires, it could lead to renewed tensions, potentially driving oil prices higher and impacting global equity markets.
How did Bitcoin perform during the March conflict?
During the March conflict, Bitcoin held relatively steady around $70,000, showing resilience amid market volatility.
What are analysts predicting for Bitcoin's future price movements?
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price could face significant volatility depending on the outcomes of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire discussions.
