Bitcoin is trading above $75,000, a critical level for bulls, but analysts caution about potential volatility due to the upcoming expiration of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. Market reactions could vary based on whether tensions escalate or de-escalate.
Mentioned in this story
Bitcoin BTC$76,675.48 is trading with a positive bias above the $75,000 level, which CoinDesk recently highlighted as a critical threshold for bulls to maintain control.
Still, some observers are urging caution, noting that prices need to hold above that level through Wednesday, when the U.S.–Iran ceasefire is set to end.
"The ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday evening Washington time, and the market has to price two paths, extension and de-escalation versus renewed escalation and oil stress. That is why even with BTC strong, the tape can still gap fast. It is headline risk with a timer," analysts at Marex said in an email to CoinDesk.
An escalation could take oil prices well above the March high of $119, potentially sending Asian and global equity markets into a tailspin. The question remains whether bitcoin, which held relatively steady around $70,000 during the March conflict, will remain resilient or come under pressure along with the broader market.
As of the time of writing, no delegation from Iran had departed for the talks in Pakistan. On Monday, President Donald Trump warned of a major escalation in the conflict if the ceasefire ends without a deal.
Also on analysts’ radar is Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chair, scheduled for Tuesday. Warsh has a reputation as an "inflation hawk" who opposed interest-rate cuts and quantitative easing following the 2008 crash.
So what he says during the session could move markets. "His remarks could act as a near-term catalyst, particularly if they reinforce expectations of policy easing," digital assets trading firm QCP Capital said in a note.
Speaking of the broader market, major cryptocurrencies such as ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) have risen by less than 2% over the past 24 hours, underperforming bitcoin. Smaller tokens such as XLM and TON have risen by more than 5% each. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index is up over 3%.
Notably, the DeFi Select Index added 2%, which is surprising given the industry-wide fallout from the weekend hack of KelpDAO. That saw the attacker drain rsETH, a liquid restaking token widely used as collateral on several DeFi platforms.
Trading above $75,000 is crucial for bulls to maintain control over Bitcoin's price movement.
If the ceasefire expires, it could lead to renewed tensions, potentially driving oil prices higher and impacting global equity markets.
During the March conflict, Bitcoin held relatively steady around $70,000, showing resilience amid market volatility.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price could face significant volatility depending on the outcomes of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire discussions.
Bank of Korea's new Governor Shin Hyun-song prioritizes central bank digital currencies and bank-issued deposit tokens in his first policy address, omitting stablecoins. This comes amid ongoing legislative debates on stablecoin regulation in South Korea.
XRP holders back in profit with a 28% rebound; price may hit $2.40.
AAVE's price drops 17% post-exploit, but whale activity suggests a market bottom.
Scammers impersonating Iran demand Bitcoin and USDT for vessel transit through Hormuz.
Crypto analyst Kev Capital TA buys Dogecoin again as it hits $0.095 support.
With a 45% drop in the VIX, Bitcoin could be on track to retake $80K.
See every story in Crypto — including breaking news and analysis.
Decentralized lender Aave has taken the biggest hit, with the total value of crypto assets locked on its platform falling to $16 billion, down nearly $10 billion since before the hack.
Aave's native token, AAVE, has declined 18% to $93 since the hack. At the same time, open interest in futures tied to the token hit a record high of 3.59 million tokens. Increased demand for leveraged bets points to potential for more volatility ahead. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
XRP's broader downtrend remains intact. (TradingView)
The chart shows XRP's daily price swings in candlestick format. The white line represents the average price over 100 days and the yellow line represents the prolonged bear market.
XRP remains below both the average and the trendline even as market leaders bitcoin BTC$76,675.48 and ether (ETH) have topped these levels on their respective price charts.
Until the price reclaims both the 100-day average and the downtrend line, momentum remains comparatively weak versus BTC and ETH, which have already established firmer bullish structures.
