Bitcoin’s Key Resistance Stall Could Send it Tumbling Much Lower: Analysts
TL;DR
Bitcoin faces resistance at its 200-day moving average, showing signs of a potential trend reversal. Analysts warn that a continued correction could lead to prices dropping below $70,000, with historical patterns suggesting further declines.
Key points
- Bitcoin faces resistance at its 200-day moving average.
- Analysts warn of a potential price drop below $70,000.
- Bitcoin's momentum has faded, indicating possible consolidation.
Bitcoin has hit resistance at its 200-day moving average and is showing signs of a trend reversal, according to CryptoQuant on Wednesday. The move closely mirrors a March 2022 pattern where a 43% rally stalled at the same level before prices declined further.
“Overall, Bitcoin demand has flipped into contraction,” the analyst wrote. The platform’s “Bull Score Index” has declined from 40 back to extreme bearish territory at 20, “as stalling stablecoin liquidity, and negative price momentum simultaneously eroded the composite signal.” This score is consistent with the deep bear market readings of February and March, when prices declined to $60,000, and historically “has preceded either further price weakness or extended consolidation,” they added.
Bitcoin Correction Likely to Continue
If the correction continues, the $70,000 level represents the primary on-chain support target, the traders’ on-chain realized price. The analysts noted that this level has functioned as a “precise inflection point” throughout the current bear market cycle. A break below this back into the $60k zone could result in new bear market lows, however. Meanwhile, Glassnode reported on Wednesday that Bitcoin has reclaimed the True Market Mean at $78,300 but failed to sustain above it. However, it also noted that the correction from recent highs is likely to continue if previous cycle patterns repeat.
“Any deeper correction from current levels would therefore reframe the recent rally as a local top within the ongoing bear market, a structure that has recurred multiple times in prior cycles and remains the higher probability outcome until price demonstrates sustained follow-through.” Bitcoin momentum has faded from full max momentum, reported Swissblock on Thursday. It remained cautiously bullish, stating that as long as momentum does not degrade significantly, “the base case is consolidation, not breakdown.” Bitcoin momentum has faded from full max momentum.
But as long as it does not fall below -0.5, this does not imply breakdown.
What usually follows is consolidation.
The key reference is June–July 2025.
Momentum faded from full strength, but the indicator never broke below… pic.twitter.com/ZarKY77Bx3
Q&A
What is the significance of Bitcoin's 200-day moving average resistance?
The 200-day moving average resistance indicates a potential trend reversal, as Bitcoin has historically struggled to maintain prices above this level.
What price levels could Bitcoin reach if it continues to decline?
If Bitcoin's correction continues, it could drop below $70,000, with analysts warning of potential new bear market lows if it falls back into the $60,000 range.
How has Bitcoin's momentum changed recently according to analysts?
Analysts report that Bitcoin's momentum has faded from full strength, suggesting a phase of consolidation rather than an outright breakdown, as long as it stays above certain thresholds.
