Bulls want bitcoin back above $80,000. Macro says not so fast.

Bitcoin BTC$76,394.10 pulled back to $76,500 from above $79,000 earlier this week, stalling the rally from late-March lows below $65,000. Those expecting a swift return to form may want to take note that recent economic releases do not support a big bullish move.

The most important is the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, which showed the consumer sentiment index falling to an all-time low of 49.8 this month, largely driven by inflationary pressures tied to the Iran conflict.

Inflation expectations also moved sharply higher, with the one-year gauge surging to 4.8% in April from 3.8% the previous month. Long-term expectations (five to 10 years) have risen to 3.5%, the highest reading since October 2025.

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Inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, which is why central banks like the Federal Reserve monitor them closely and try to anchor them. The sharp rise, therefore, could limit the Fed’s ability to signal interest-rate cuts or liquidity easing in the near term, as additional monetary easing risks reinforcing inflationary pressures. That hawkish tilt could, in turn, cap upside or slow gains in BTC and other risk assets.

“For the Federal Reserve, the long-term expectations move is the more dangerous data point. It is the variable the central bank watches most closely when assessing whether inflation psychology is becoming unanchored, and a one-month shift of this size raises the bar for any near-term easing pivot, even as the real economy weakens at the margin,” analysts at Bitfinex said.

The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday.

In the meantime, traders are also pricing in a potential Bank of Japan rate increase in June.

“Rate hikes this month are looking improbable, according to current market opinion. Financial bets suggest we may see more than two rate increases in the eurozone and the U.K. before year-end. A June hike is almost fully priced in. We are now lacking clarity in the data to make good decisions, and that is the main impediment,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.

On the crypto-specific side, sustained ETF inflows remain crucial to keeping spot BTC supported on dips.

Meanwhile, coordinated industry efforts to contain fallout from the KelpDAO exploit have helped DeFi tokens hold up better than the broader market. The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index gained 0.5% over 24 hours, decoupling from the CoinDesk 20’s 1.5% decline. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "."