Crypto's great hope in Senate's Clarity Act still has a path to survive tight calendar

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, if approved, would become the second major crypto bill to become law, joining last year's Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act. But it's an unresolved stablecoin matter from the GENIUS Act that has delayed progress on the Clarity Act since the start of the year, as bank lobbyists have drawn enough support from senators to back their worry that stablecoin rewards programs could be close enough to deposit yield that it jeopardizes the banks' business model.

The debate — far afield from the central aims of the Clarity Act — has raged through White House interventions and tough rhetoric from crypto insiders. Coinbase, which stands to take a substantial hit if stablecoin reward programs are curtailed, has been at the forefront, and Chief Legal Office Paul Grewal posted Tuesday on social media site X with another push.

"You can’t be for CLARITY and against rewards," he wrote. "It’s one or the other. Time to choose."

Though key Senate negotiators had recently said they had an "agreement in principle" to move forward with a compromise, Republican Senator Tillis told reporters that earlier hopes for April progress was likely slipping into May. The White House has leaned into the crypto position on allowing some rewards that don't look like interest on core bank deposits.

"It’s hard to explain any further lobbying by banks on this issue as motivated by anything other than greed or ignorance," Patrick Witt, a top crypto adviser in Trump's White House, said in how own recent posting on X. "Move on."

In the current version, insiders say that the compromise has hovered steadily around an approach that would ban payment of yield on any product that looks or acts like insurance on a deposit, but it would still let firms such as Coinbase structure rewards programs that would be more akin to credit-card incentives. But the lawmakers have been shy about releasing text that could spark further negotiation drama, after letting both crypto and banking industry representatives review language last month.

"We're too close to let this effort fail," said Cody Carbone, CEO of the Digital Chamber, in a statement to CoinDesk. "A markup must happen to move this forward. It's been three months since it was initially scheduled, and given the progress on all issues, especially the bipartisan stablecoin yield agreement, now is the time."

Every day that passes without progress marks a decline in the odds for eventual Clarity Act success. The very next action should be the scheduling of the markup hearing and the sharing of the long-awaited bill text that the negotiators have been wrestling over.

"In our view, the odds of CLARITY being signed into law in 2026 are roughly 50-50, and possibly lower," according to a research note that crypto investment firm Galaxy is planning on publishing this week. "The uncertainty stems not from any single issue but from the sheer number of unresolved questions that must be settled in sequence under severe time pressure."

In other words, a single further blowup among the negotiators could be a fatal delay, though the period after the November elections could offer a final low-odds, last-ditch opening. The so-called "lame duck" session of Congress at the end of the year can be a period in which the outgoing Congress can still act, and more than one crypto insider has suggested that it's not out of the realm of possibility that a hypothetically derailed Clarity Act could reappear then.

While crypto lobbyists are desperate for immediate action on the legislation, the industry is playing the long game on the political front. Crypto PACs have already devoted millions of dollars to keep adding to the list of its friends in Congress from both parties. The sector's leading campaign-finance arm, Fairshake, is careful to back members of both parties, and many of their political picks will be joining next year's Congress. If the Clarity Act is law by then, there are likely to be other pressing legislative matters for the industry, potentially including a tax overhaul and the establishment of a federal stockpile of bitcoin BTC$75,544.33.