Ethereum To $10,000? Analyst Says ETH Must Clear This Level First

Ethereum’s latest rebound has brought the $10,000 bull-market debate back into focus, but crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) says ETH has not yet confirmed a higher-timeframe trend reversal. In a May 7 market update, the analyst argued that Ethereum remains trapped below major resistance until it can reclaim the $2,800 area and prove the move with a successful retest.

The core of Kevin’s argument is simple: ETH has rallied from its local low near $1,700, but the move still resembles a counter-trend bounce rather than the beginning of a durable bull-market phase. He said market sentiment has shifted from bearish to more neutral as price has climbed into resistance, a pattern he sees frequently during relief rallies.

“Is the bull market back? Are we back in a higher time frame uptrend? Is ETH going to 10K right now? Is the bottom of the bear market in?” he asked, framing the debate now dominating crypto social media. His answer was cautious. While some traders are already calling for a new uptrend, Kevin said the chart has not yet delivered the confirmation bulls need.

Analyst Says Ethereum Still Needs $2,800 Breakout

For Kevin, the level to watch is $2,800. Until Ethereum gets back above that zone, moves toward $2,900 or $3,000, and then retests reclaimed moving averages as support, he said the market structure remains unresolved.

“Until ETH gets back above $2,800, until it then comes back up to $2,900 or $3K, maybe gets rejected there, comes back down and retests these key moving averages, the golden pocket holds it and starts to ascend higher. Until that happens, it’s still a higher counter-trend rally within a higher time frame downtrend,” he said.

He pointed to Ethereum’s interaction with the 100 EMA, 21-week EMA, and 20-week SMA, saying ETH had moved into that resistance cluster and was already showing signs of rejection. Several daily candles, he noted, carried large upside wicks, which he interpreted as weakness in the rally rather than clean accumulation.

The analyst also questioned whether Ethereum’s current structure resembles a major bottom. In his view, prior bullish reversals showed more constructive accumulation, including rounding structures, stronger retests, and cleaner transitions back above key averages. The current move, by contrast, has been “lackluster,” with low volume, muted money flow, weak spot inflows, limited whale money flow, and insufficient upside expansion.

Bitcoin Still Leads The Signal

Kevin stressed that Ethereum should not be analyzed in isolation. Even for ETH, he said Bitcoin remains the first chart to watch when assessing whether crypto has truly shifted back into a higher-timeframe uptrend.