
Analyst Predicts Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trap Of The Cycle, Calls Out 50% Crash To $42,000
Analyst warns of a Bitcoin bull trap, predicting a drop to $42,000.

Researcher Giancarlo Lelli cracked a 15-bit ECC key using a quantum computer, earning 1 BTC from Project Eleven. Bitcoin pioneer Adam Back dismissed the claim as misleading, arguing it doesn't pose a real threat to classical encryption.
Mentioned in this story
The crypto industry is discussing a high-profile precedent as researcher Giancarlo Lelli received a reward of 1 BTC from Project Eleven for successfully cracking a 15-bit ECC key on a quantum computer. While some see this as the beginning of the end for classical encryption, Adam Back has led the camp of skeptics, stating that behind the loud headline lies ordinary statistics.
Lelli used a cloud-based quantum computer and a modified Shor's algorithm to derive the key. Project Eleven highlights the progress over the past seven months - the complexity of cracked keys has increased from 6 to 15 bits, a 512-fold jump.
By their logic, breaking Bitcoin becomes merely a matter of engineering refinement.
The head of Blockstream, Adam Back, dismissed the claim entirely. According to him, the researcher did not solve the problem using a quantum method such as discrete logarithm computation, but simply checked outputs classically that are indistinguishable from noise.
Back agrees with the explanation that Lelli's method is equivalent to simple guessing. At such a small key size of 15 bits, the probability of success through brute force is so high that the involvement of a quantum computer becomes an expensive decoration.
read the community note: it means it doesn't do what they have been claiming it does. it does not compute the discrete log of anything using quantum.
— Adam Back (@adam3us) April 26, 2026
Adam Back remains confident regarding quantum resistance. His view as of April 2026 is that quantum machines will first break state secrets and banking systems, not Bitcoin.
The criticism was supported by former Bitcoin Core developer Jonas Schnelli, who provided specific numbers: out of a total keyspace of 32,497 possibilities, the researcher tested around 20,000. "This is a 50% probability, like flipping a coin. Quantum computing contributed nothing useful here", Schnelli concluded.
Giancarlo Lelli successfully cracked a 15-bit ECC key using a cloud-based quantum computer.
Adam Back argues that Lelli's method did not utilize true quantum techniques but rather classical checks that resemble noise.
Cracking a 15-bit ECC key suggests potential vulnerabilities in encryption, but the increase in complexity from 6 to 15 bits is seen as a minor step in quantum computing advancements.

Analyst warns of a Bitcoin bull trap, predicting a drop to $42,000.

Bitcoin could drop to $60K by Q3 2026 before recovering above $85K.

XRP is coiling for a breakout as it faces key resistance levels. Analysts predict volatility ahead!

Swiss Bitcoin reserve campaign fails, but founder plans another attempt.

American Bitcoin reported an $82 million loss in Q1 2026 despite mining a record 817 BTC. The company's total Bitcoin holdings increased to approximately 7,300 BTC after recent purchases.

XRP Analyst Raises Key Question About Demand in Global Settlement System
See every story in Crypto — including breaking news and analysis.
As of now, the "first-ever quantum hack" is regarded by experts as more of a marketing move than a technical breakthrough. Back maintains that as long as Bitcoin keys remain 256 bits long, such experiments remain nothing more than a sandbox exercise.