Glassnode Says Bitcoin Options Traders Are Still Positioned For Trouble

Bitcoin’s drop back below $78,000 after a rejection near recent local range highs has left options traders positioned cautiously, according to new data shared by Glassnode. The firm said the options market continues to show compressed volatility expectations, elevated downside hedging demand, and a gamma structure that could amplify weakness if BTC moves toward the mid-$75,000 area.

The move follows a failed attempt to hold near the upper end of the recent local range. While spot price action has softened, Glassnode’s thread focused on what derivatives positioning suggests beneath the surface: traders are still paying up for protection rather than aggressively chasing upside.

“BTC broke back below $78K after being rejected near the recent local range highs,” Glassnode wrote. “Here’s what BTC options data shows on positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the surface.”

Bitcoin Options Traders Stay Defensive

One of the clearest signals came from implied volatility. Glassnode said BTC implied volatility resumed its decline after a short-lived rebound earlier in the week. One-week implied volatility now sits near 31%, down from 39% earlier this week, while longer-dated implied volatility also moved slightly lower.

The implication is that the market is not yet pricing a disorderly breakout in either direction, even as downside hedging remains elevated. “The market is pricing a quieter near term environment again,” Glassnode said.

That calm, however, is not the same as bullish positioning. Glassnode said 25-delta skew remains “firmly in put territory” after the rejection near $82,000. One-week skew briefly touched 24% before easing, a sign that puts continued to trade at a strong premium to calls.

“Traders continue to favor downside protection,” the firm wrote.

The same caution appeared in Glassnode’s skew index ratio, which compares upside and downside implied volatility. Most tenors remain below 1, meaning puts are richer than calls. The exception is the six-month tenor, where the ratio still shows a call premium, suggesting that longer-dated upside demand has not disappeared entirely.

Nearer-term positioning is more defensive. Glassnode said upside demand remains limited outside longer-dated structures, while the broader options surface continues to show investors seeking protection against further downside.

Realized and implied volatility are also diverging. One-month realized volatility has fallen toward 27%, while one-month implied volatility remains closer to 35%. That leaves the volatility risk premium near recent highs, according to Glassnode.

“Options still price more movement than BTC has recently delivered,” the firm said.

The gamma profile adds another layer of risk. Glassnode identified a large cluster near $75,000, with roughly $3.2 billion of negative exposure below spot. In options markets, short gamma positioning can force dealers to hedge in ways that reinforce spot moves, potentially increasing volatility if price approaches key levels.