Hyperliquid’s (HYPE) Growth Story Meets Slowing Activity: Report

Hyperliquid’s HYPE token rose 80% over the past 90 days, significantly outperforming Bitcoin’s 10% gain over the same period. This price action comes in the backdrop of a market witnessing geopolitical turmoil.

However, data demonstrates that fundamentals have waned relative to HYPE’s valuation.

Cooling Derivatives Momentum

In his latest report, crypto analyst Michael Nadeau said investors are increasingly “paying up” for each dollar of revenue, as the token’s fully diluted price-to-sales ratio reached 47.3, up 67% quarter-over-quarter and nearing record levels. This is an uncommon trend during periods when valuations typically contract.

Over the last 90 days, Hyperliquid’s perpetual DEX generated $153.8 million in fees, down 13% from the previous quarter but up 12.3% year-over-year, with 99% of those fees used for HYPE buybacks. Average daily trading volume stood at $7.07 billion, after rising 6% quarter-over-quarter, while open interest declined to $7.6 billion, down 51% from its peak and around 15% over the same period.

The protocol continues to lead among decentralized perpetual exchanges with a 72% market share, though it accounts for about 5% of total volume when centralized platforms are included. In terms of capital flows, $3.36 billion is currently bridged into Hyperliquid, which is down 44% from its peak. To top that, $730 million has left the network over the last 90 days, including $500 million since early April.

Mixed Signals

Activity metrics depicted mixed trends. Active addresses, for one, averaged 46,000 per day, up 6.6% quarter-over-quarter, besides strong growth in HIP-3, a framework that allows third parties to launch their own perpetual DEXs.

HIP-3 volumes averaged $2.58 billion per day, up 973% quarter-over-quarter, and accounted for 36% of total volume. Meanwhile, the HyperEVM ecosystem recorded $1.84 million in revenue over the period as it plunged 33% quarter-over-quarter, with active addresses also falling.

Stablecoin supply on HyperEVM rose to $1.83 billion, driven largely by USDC.

On token dynamics, buybacks were greater than issuance over the past 90 days, which resulted in net deflation, while core contributor token unlocks are ongoing through 2027. The report also found that buyback yield has declined to 2.55% on a fully diluted basis.

Certain areas reveal strong expansion, while others reflect cooling activity. As a result, the token’s price has gone up faster than the actual growth of the project’s usage and revenue, while different parts of the system are growing at different speeds.