Institutions Are Buying 6x Bitcoin’s Daily Supply: Is $96,000 Next?

Bitcoin’s latest rally is being driven by a sharp acceleration in institutional demand, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, who says large buyers are now absorbing roughly six times the amount of BTC mined each day. The setup has pushed several of Capriole’s long-running Bitcoin models back into bullish territory, with Edwards arguing that both on-chain and technical conditions now favor a continuation higher.

In a May 5 Substack post titled “Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin,” Edwards said institutional flows have intensified since his previous update, rising to around 577% of daily mined supply. Bitcoin, he noted, has gained 12% over the same period.

“Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply. Every time it’s been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we’ve typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases.”

Based on that historical pattern, Edwards said a comparable move would put Bitcoin near $96,000. The argument is straightforward: if institutional demand continues to exceed new issuance by such a wide margin, available supply tightens quickly, especially in a market where long-term holders have already shown less willingness to sell into weakness.

Capriole Models Turn Bullish Bitcoin From $71,000

Edwards also pointed to Capriole’s internal models, including Trend King and Macro Index, both of which flipped long around $71,000. Trend King, described by Edwards as the firm’s longest-running live trading strategy, is currently leveraged long Bitcoin. The model is primarily technical, though it also incorporates selected on-chain inputs.

Macro Index, Capriole’s fundamentals-only Bitcoin model, has also moved into what Edwards described as “recovery” mode. The model tracks more than 200 on-chain and macro market data points, providing an aggregate view of Bitcoin’s fundamental backdrop. Edwards said its trends “tend to be sticky,” implying that the signal is less about a short-term tactical trade and more about a broader regime shift.

Derivatives data adds another layer to the bullish case. Capriole’s Bitcoin Perps Heat indicator, which tracks relative extremes in perpetual swap markets by measuring funding rates and open interest across a four-year normalization window, recently showed what Edwards called an “extremely bullish long term signal” following excessive shorting.

That matters because market positioning appears to have reset before the breakout. Edwards wrote that “complete capitulation on derivatives markets occurred in March/April,” suggesting that leverage had been flushed out before Bitcoin’s latest move higher. In that framing, the rally is not simply chasing overheated longs; it is emerging after a period in which traders were leaning too defensively.