Iran conflict hints Bitcoin’s addressable market could exceed gold: Bitwise
TL;DR
Bitcoin's market potential could exceed the $34 trillion gold market, according to Bitwise's Matt Hougan. The ongoing conflict in Iran highlights Bitcoin's use as a currency, suggesting its addressable market may be significantly larger than previously thought.
Key points
- Bitcoin's addressable market may exceed $34 trillion
- Conflict in Iran shows Bitcoin's currency-like use
- Bitwise predicts Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin
Bitcoin’s addressable market has the potential to surpass the $34 trillion gold market if it is eventually widely used as both a currency and a store of value, according to Bitwise's chief investment officer Matt Hougan.
Hougan said on Tuesday that while Bitcoin (BTC) has been seen as a contender to gold, the war in Iran has shown that Bitcoin can also serve in a “currency-like manner,”, referring to Iran’s proposed plan to charge a toll that can be paid in crypto for ships to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.
“In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, Bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative,” Hougan said.
“It tells you that Bitcoin's total addressable market is probably a lot bigger than the… gold market alone.”
Hougan previously predicted that if Bitcoin captures even 17% of the store-of-value market over the next decade, it could reach $1 million a coin. Taking a role as an international currency would likely see it go much higher.
Source: Matt Hougan
“If Bitcoin starts to take on a dual role as both a store of value, like gold, and an actual currency, like the dollar, we may need to revise our targets higher.”
Bitcoin is trading around $74,500 with a market capitalization of roughly $1.4 trillion, according to CoinGecko. Gold is trading for $4,854 an ounce, and its market cap is estimated to be more than $33.7 trillion as of Wednesday.
Related: Bitcoin bounces to $72.5K as markets react to US Strait of Hormuz blockade
Bitcoin is already functioning as a store of value for people in high-inflation economies.
Citizens of Argentina, Turkey, and Venezuela have experienced persistent inflation and currency collapses, prompting many to switch to Bitcoin and protect their wealth.
A January Coinbase survey found that 87% of Argentinians flagged crypto and blockchain technology as a way to enhance their financial independence, while nearly three in four respondents saw crypto as a solution to challenges like inflation.
Bitcoin has also seen adoption by corporates looking to bolster their balance sheets.
Private and public companies tracked by BitBo collectively hold more than 1.5 million Bitcoin valued at more than $116 billion.
Private and public companies collectively hold more than 1.5 million Bitcoin. Source: Bitbo
However, Bitcoin has also grown as a payment method, with academic publishing company Springer Nature identifying about 11,000 merchants globally using BTC Map data that currently accept Bitcoin as a form of payment.
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Q&A
How could Bitcoin's market surpass gold's $34 trillion value?
Bitcoin's market could surpass gold's value if it becomes widely adopted as both a currency and a store of value.
What role does the Iran conflict play in Bitcoin's adoption?
The Iran conflict demonstrates Bitcoin's potential as an apolitical currency, as Iran plans to charge tolls in crypto for ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
What is Bitwise's prediction for Bitcoin's future value?
Bitwise predicts that if Bitcoin captures 17% of the store-of-value market, it could reach $1 million per coin, with potential for even higher value as an international currency.
