It might be too late for bitcoin’s quantum migration, Project Eleven report argues

More than $3 trillion in digital assets could eventually become vulnerable to theft within the next four to seven years, according to a new report from Project Eleven*.*

Project Eleven focuses on post-quantum security and migration for digital assets and recently announced a collaboration with the Solana Foundation to prepare its network against the threat of quantum computing.

“The digital asset industry holds over $3 trillion in aggregate value, and virtually all of it is secured by the same class of cryptographic primitive: elliptic curve digital signatures,” which are vulnerable to quantum computing attacks, the report said.

But it is not only crypto that is at stake here. The report states that the same public-key cryptography security used by bitcoin, ether and stablecoins also underpins banking systems, cloud infrastructure, authentication networks and military communications.

The 110-page report by Project Eleven, whose CEO Alex Pruden was on stage at Consensus Miami 2026, also states that sufficiently powerful quantum computers could use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from public keys, allowing attackers to forge signatures and take over control of wallets and digital accounts secured by the elliptic curve cryptography.

This means blockchains, banking infrastructure, cloud systems, military comms and other digital identity systems are also vulnerable, not just bitcoin, ethereum, stablecoins, and other blockchains, the report emphasizes.

Project Eleven says a “Q-Day” scenario, the arrival of cryptographically relevant quantum computer cable of breaking widely used public-key cryptography, could be as early as 2030, no later than 2033.

“Our analysis suggests that, based on current trends, Q-Day is more likely to occur than not by 2033, and potentially even as soon as 2030,” the report reads. “The window for the world to migrate to post-quantum cryptography is narrowing.”

And here is why it is becoming so complicated, the report explains: large systems often take between five to more than 10 years to migrate, depending on how complex their networks are.

Another difficult challenge is how the transition actually takes place, as migrating all quantum vulnerable systems and blockchains to secure networks involves a process that requires a coordinated, simultaneous transition from all users, exchanges, custodians, wallet providers and miners.

Read more: To freeze or not to freeze: Satoshi and the $440 billion in bitcoin threatened by quantum computing