
The great derivatives disconnect: Why 'negative' funding is actually a bullish signal for Bitcoin
Exploring how negative funding rates for Bitcoin could indicate bullish trends despite current market signals.

Kalshi has raised $1 billion in funding at a $22 billion valuation, driven by growing institutional interest in prediction markets. The Series F round was led by Coatue and included several prominent investors.
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Prediction market platform Kalshi said it raised $1 billion in fresh funding at a $22 billion valuation, as institutional investors increasingly turn to event contracts for trading and hedging.
The Series F round was led by Coatue and included Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Paradigm, IVP, Morgan Stanley and ARK Invest, according to a Thursday press release. The news confirmed a Bloomberg report in March about the investment round and valuation.
The firm said it plans to use the capital to expand institutional services, including block trading tools, broker integrations and new risk products aimed at asset managers and insurance firms.
The fundraising comes as prediction markets have gained momentum in crypto and traditional finance alike as firms look for alternative ways to gauge probabilities and manage risk. Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms increasingly use event contracts alongside conventional derivatives to hedge exposure or express macroeconomic views.
The company operates a regulated marketplace where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, from elections and economic data to sports and weather events. Traders buy contracts that pay out if a specific event occurs, turning forecasts into tradable markets.
Kalshi said institutional trading volume on the platform jumped 800% over the past six months, while annualized trading volume more than tripled to $178 billion during the same period.

Kalshi's reported trading volume (Kalshi)
Amid staggering growth, prediction markets have also drawn growing scrutiny from U.S. regulators and state authorities. Nevada, New Jersey, Illinois and several other states have issued cease-and-desist orders or launched legal challenges against Kalshi, arguing that some event contracts resemble unlicensed sports betting products. Kalshi has pushed back, saying its federally regulated exchange falls under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than state gambling regulators.
Kalshi's valuation has reached $22 billion following its recent $1 billion funding round.
The Series F funding round for Kalshi was led by Coatue, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and others.
Kalshi operates a regulated marketplace where users trade contracts based on real-world outcomes, allowing traders to buy contracts that pay out if specific events occur.

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