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Polymarket traders win $37K after Paris weather data glitch, raising suspicion
TL;DR
Two Polymarket accounts won $37,000 by betting on unusual temperature spikes at a Paris weather station. The incidents on April 6 and 15 have raised suspicions of foul play and insider trading.
Key points
- Two Polymarket accounts won $37,000
- Bets were on temperature readings in Paris
- Suspicion of foul play and insider trading
- Temperature spiked at Charles de Gaulle Airport
- Growing scrutiny over prediction markets
Mentioned in this story
PolymarketParisCharles de Gaulle Airport
Two Polymarket accounts have attracted suspicion after making $37,000 betting correctly on two unusual temperature readings of a weather station located in a major airport in France.
The two weather-focused prediction markets focused on the highest temperature in Paris on April 6 and 15, using the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius, according to Polymarket.
French media outlet BFMTV reported on Monday that the temperature suddenly climbed to over 21 degrees Celsius on April 6, before dropping again immediately. The market resolved with the winner taking over $16,000.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics tool Bubblemaps reported a similar glitch for the April 15 market. The weather station showed 18 degrees Celsius most of the day, then suddenly spiked to 22 degrees Celsius before dropping back.
Some have questioned whether foul play was involved. Prediction markets are already facing growing scrutiny over insider trading and possible violations of gambling laws.
Source: Bubble Maps
“That spike didn't show on nearby stations,” Bubblemaps analysts said, adding that “Just before the spike, one trader started buying NO shares on "18°C,” before exiting with over $21,000.
Ruben Hallali, a meteorologist, told BFMTV the temperature glitch was unlikely to be a natural event and speculated it may have been tampered with onsite.
Related: Charles Schwab, Citadel Securities are eying prediction markets
“Such temperature variations seem very unlikely, especially on these two dates, and over such a short period. We can imagine that an individual with a good understanding of how the sensors work intervened, resulting in temperatures rising by two degrees at the right time, to validate a bet,” he added.
Q&A
What unusual temperature readings occurred at the Paris weather station?
On April 6, the temperature spiked to over 21 degrees Celsius, and on April 15, it rose to 22 degrees Celsius before dropping back.
How much money did the Polymarket traders win from the weather bets?
The traders won a total of $37,000 from their successful bets on the temperature readings.
What concerns have been raised about the Polymarket betting incidents?
There are suspicions of foul play and insider trading due to the unusual temperature spikes and the timing of the bets.
