Purge of millions of crypto tokens underway, BTC needs it for sustainable bull cycle: Ben Cowen

“A clear indication of that is bitcoin’s dominance, which has been increasing since then,” Cowen said.

While bitcoin dominance gradually fell with the rise of altcoins from over 99% in 2013 to roughly 33% in 2018, it has since trended higher, reclaiming 60% in late April. Ark Invest recently suggested it could reach 70% by 2030.

“Bitcoin dominance when seen with stablecoins included is misleading,” Cowen said. When stablecoins are excluded, his firm estimates dominance is already above 67%, reflecting capital rotating out of weaker tokens. “Capital is not rotating into higher-risk assets, but instead consolidating into Bitcoin or moving to the sidelines,” Cowen wrote in his April 2026 Crypto Risk Memo.

The data of decay

Cowen’s report added that “the current cycle has been defined by a persistent downtrend in participation since 2021,” with bitcoin dominance rising while the advance-decline index for the top 100 cryptocurrencies trends lower

Matthew Pinnock, COO at Altura DeFi, noted that the explosive growth of automated launchpads like Pump.fun has ballooned the number of weak tokens, leading to an 86% failure rate among 2025's new launches.

Luke Nolan, senior researcher at CoinShares, said the token-level purge has “already largely happened,” pointing to a collapse in memecoin market capitalization from about $150 billion in December 2024 to under $50 billion. “Ninety-five percent of tokens being worthless is fair,” Nolan said.

A gloomy short-term bitcoin outlook

Despite the $81,000 milestone, Cowen remains cautious. “I think BTC is in a bear market and will likely drift lower as the year goes on, with headwinds like geopolitical tensions and the Fed delaying rate cuts,” Cowen doubts “bitcoin will see an ATH in 2026. This is more of a reset year with time-based capitulation.”

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said Monday he believes bitcoin will rise to $250,000 in 2029, but only after a prolonged bottoming phase that may last until September and October. Michael Terpin, known as the “Crypto Godfather”, said bitcoin needs to fall to roughly $57,000 in the next four to five months before entering a bull phase. He dismissed a BTC ATH this year.

“I think this business cycle is a tough one as in order for the higher risk assets - like bitcoin and ether - to do well, we would need a crisis to justify much looser monetary policy,” Cowen stated. “But until that crisis happens, crypto will likely bleed to other asset classes.”

Bitcoin has already declined from a cycle high near $126,000 to a low near $60,000, a drawdown of over 50%, consistent with prior late-cycle environments, Cowen concluded.