Strategy to Surpass Satoshi in Bitcoin Holdings Within 2 Years, Predicts Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn

Strategy (MSTR), under the leadership of Michael Saylor, has now officially secured its position as the largest Bitcoin holder in the world, surpassing the flagship ETF from BlackRock (IBIT). The only remaining, almost mythical barrier is the wallets of Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

According to the latest report from Alex Thorn at Galaxy Research, the balance of power in the Bitcoin ecosystem has shifted dramatically. Following an aggressive buying streak in mid-April, with over 34,000 BTC acquired in a single week, Strategy has accumulated 815,061 BTC. By comparison, IBIT currently holds 806,178 BTC.

End of the Satoshi era?

With Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings, often referred to as the "Patoshi pattern", estimated at 1.096 million BTC, analysis from Galaxy Research suggests that the question is no longer whether Strategy can surpass the Bitcoin creator, but when it will happen.

Satoshi vs. IBIT vs. Strategy in cumulative unspent BTC holding by entity, Source: Alex Thorn via Galaxy Research

In the optimistic scenario, if Strategy maintains the pace of the last 30 days, around 1,765 BTC per day, it could surpass Satoshi as early as September 2026. A more moderate scenario, based on average accumulation rates this year, points to November 2026.

Even in the case of a sharp slowdown, Thorn's linear projection indicates April 2028 as the outer limit.

Strategy has evolved from a simple equity holder into a kind of "digital state". With its current reserves, the company controls nearly 4% of Bitcoin's total supply, making its influence on the market more significant than that of any existing fund or government. Some market participants already see this as a different kind of risk.