This simple indicator has called every bottom since 2015. It hasn't triggered yet

Here is something worth noting about bitcoin BTC$74,931.54. Beneath all the noise from daily price swings, X posts and macro headlines, there is a remarkably simple indicator that has quietly called every major market bottom since 2015. Not once, but every single time.

To the dismay of bulls, it hasn't fired yet, suggesting the broader bear market may not be over, and the recent bounce to $75,000 from $65,000 could be a temporary recovery.

The indicator

It involves two lines on the price chart. That's it, no complex formula, analysis of blockchain data needed.

These two lines represent bitcoin's average price over the past 50 and 100 weeks. They act as simple moving averages, showing near-term and long-term trends in bitcoin's price.

BTC's price chart with 50- and 100-week averages. (TradingView)

Most of the time, the 50-week average is above the 100-week line. That's the natural state for markets that trend upward over time, as is the case with bitcoin.

But occasionally, during periods of peak fear, when selling is relentless, and sentiment has collapsed, the 50-week average falls below the 100-week average. This crossover is known as a bear market signal.

It has occurred three times in bitcoin's history. Each time, it has coincided with the end of a bear market, marking major price bottoms that have not been revisited since.

In other words, it's been a contrary indicator, ironically marking bottoms rather than deeper downturns.

Three times, three bottoms

Look at the vertical lines on the chart going back to 2015. These mark the three bearish crossovers – April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022. Each one occurred near the bottoming phase, not precisely at the lowest point, but within the same range.

In 2015, BTC was written off as a failed experiment. Then the crossover happened. BTC subsequently rallied from $200 to nearly $20,000 by the end of 2017. A similar pattern played out after the early 2019 crossover.

The 2022 crypto winter, characterized by several bankruptcies and scams, shattered investor confidence. The downtrend, however, ran out of steam after the crossover happened in September. BTC bottomed out in the final months and later chalked out a rally to $126,000 by October 20205.