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Trump Walks Back Prediction Market Criticism, Says 'Smart People' He Knows Like Them
TL;DR
Trump softened his criticism of prediction markets, acknowledging support from 'very smart' people. This comes after he previously described the industry as turning the world into 'a casino.'
Key points
- Trump softened his stance on prediction markets
- He acknowledged support from intelligent individuals
- Prediction markets have over $7 billion in weekly trading volume
- Trump previously criticized prediction markets as a 'casino'
- A U.S. soldier was arrested for insider trading on Polymarket
Mentioned in this story
Donald TrumpDonald Trump Jr.PolymarketKalshi
In brief
- Trump appeared to soften criticism of prediction markets just two days after saying they helped turn the world into “a casino.”
- Over the weekend, he noted “very smart” people support the industry.
- Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., has ties to both Polymarket and Kalshi.
President Donald Trump appeared to walk back criticism of prediction markets over the weekend, suggesting he wasn’t yet sure where he stood on the matter or whether he’d prefer if the emerging sector were regulated differently.
On Thursday, the president told reporters he was “never much in favor” of prediction markets—a booming industry that now accounts for over $7 billion in weekly trading volume—which he said have played a part in turning “the whole world, unfortunately [into] somewhat of a casino.”
The comments came hours after federal law enforcement arrested a U.S. soldier for allegedly using classified intelligence to net over $400,000 from a Polymarket wager on the timing of a high-profile military operation.
But on Saturday, Trump seemed to retract his critique, saying he wasn’t sure where he stood on the subject—and arguing some “very smart” people believe the novel sector is worth supporting.
“Well, I don’t know,” Trump said when asked by Decrypt about his prior statements critical of prediction markets. “I know some people that are very smart. They like it, they disagree.”
When asked if he would consider directing his administration to change its aggressively pro-prediction market policies, the president demurred.
“A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the cold if we don’t do it,” Trump said.
“I know people that are in the prediction market business, and they’re pretty happy with it,” he added.
Decrypt's White House correspondent @sander_lutz asked President Trump about his comments on prediction markets from earlier this week:
“A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the cold if we don’t.” pic.twitter.com/IWPwxXDP7c
— Decrypt (@DecryptMedia) April 25, 2026
Q&A
What did Trump say about prediction markets recently?
Trump recently softened his criticism of prediction markets, stating that he knows 'very smart' people who support the industry.
How much trading volume do prediction markets account for?
Prediction markets account for over $7 billion in weekly trading volume.
What was Trump's initial stance on prediction markets?
Trump initially stated he was 'never much in favor' of prediction markets and criticized them for making the world feel like a 'casino.'
What incident involved Polymarket and a U.S. soldier?
A U.S. soldier was arrested for allegedly using classified intelligence to profit over $400,000 from a wager on Polymarket regarding a military operation.
