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Why April's Last Mid-Week Matters Most for XRP and Bitcoin: Between $2.5 Billion in ETF Inflows and 'Sell in May' Trap
TL;DR
April's last mid-week is crucial for Bitcoin and XRP, with ETF inflows of $2.44 billion and $81.63 million respectively. Investors face a 'perfect storm' of macroeconomic data and seasonal factors that could impact the crypto market significantly.
Key points
- Bitcoin ETF inflows of $2.44 billion in April
- XRP ETF inflows of $81.63 million in April
- FOMC meeting on April 29 may influence market
- Inflation at 2.8% complicates interest rate decisions
- Brent crude prices nearing recession risks
Mentioned in this story
FOMC
Brent crude
The current week is shaping up to be the most important of the half-year for the crypto market. While Bitcoin and XRP recorded ETF inflows in April, $2.44 billion and $81.63 million respectively, investors are facing a "perfect storm". Macroeconomic data and seasonality factors may either confirm the digital assets' appeal or erase the entire spring growth.
First in line is the FOMC meeting on April 29, taking place against the backdrop of March PCE at 2.8%. This is "sticky" inflation that gives the regulator no reason to cut rates.
According to the minutes, the Fed has taken the most neutral stance possible, no longer trading direction, but probability. The systemic conflict is obvious: inflation demands tightness, while a weakening labor market calls for easing.
Oil shocks and GDP to test the 'Sell in May' theory
Brent crude at $108.50, driven by paralysis in the Middle East, is pushing the global economy closer to recession. This overlaps with the classic market risk of the "Sell in May and Go Away" narrative.
In 2026, this principle sounds especially alarming: if by May 1 investors do not see a dovish pivot from the Fed, profit-taking ahead of the summer slowdown could become widespread, turning a seasonal pattern into a large-scale risk-off move.
Bitcoin and XRP price action in April 2026, Source: TradingView
The decisive trigger will be U.S. GDP data for Q1 2026, released on April 30. A dangerous gap is forming here: while the consensus forecast stands at 2.2%, Trading Economics analysts expect only 1.5%.
If actual figures confirm a sharp economic slowdown alongside above-target inflation, this will signal stagflation. For XRP, as a barometer of retail sentiment, this is the worst-case scenario: April ETF inflows could instantly turn into May outflows amid a broad decline in risk appetite.
Q&A
What are the ETF inflows for Bitcoin and XRP in April 2023?
In April 2023, Bitcoin recorded ETF inflows of $2.44 billion, while XRP saw inflows of $81.63 million.
How does the FOMC meeting on April 29 affect the crypto market?
The FOMC meeting on April 29 could influence the crypto market by addressing inflation concerns and interest rate policies, which are critical for investor sentiment.
What is the significance of the 'Sell in May' theory for crypto investors?
The 'Sell in May' theory suggests that investors may sell their assets in May to avoid potential market downturns, which could impact the performance of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and XRP.
