Cardano (ADA) Forms Golden Cross During Drop, Bull Trap or Setup?
Cardano (ADA) forms a golden cross, but is it a bull trap amid a market drop?
U.Today1 min read
2024 BTC cycle 'dramatically' underperforming previous halvings: Analyst
TL;DR
The 2024 Bitcoin cycle is significantly weaker than previous halvings, according to analyst Alex Thorn. Price volatility and potential upside are notably dampened compared to cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
Key points
- 2024 Bitcoin cycle shows weaker performance than past cycles
- Current cycle has dampened volatility and lower potential upside
- 2012 cycle saw a 9,294% price increase
Mentioned in this story
Alex ThornGalaxy
The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.
Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.
BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.
A comparison of Bitcoin’s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: Alex Thorn
“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”
The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.
The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.
Q&A
How does the 2024 Bitcoin cycle compare to previous halvings?
The 2024 Bitcoin cycle is underperforming, showing less volatility and lower price increases compared to the cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
What was the price increase during the 2012 Bitcoin halving cycle?
During the 2012 halving cycle, Bitcoin's price increased by about 9,294%, reaching a high of approximately $1,163.
What was Bitcoin's all-time high after the 2024 halving?
Bitcoin's all-time high after the 2024 halving was above $125,000, which was 97% higher than the halving price of around $63,000.
