A Massive Bull Trap? Why Analysts Are Warning About Bitcoin’s $80K Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above $80,000 for the first time in three months. But data show weak on-chain activity, indicating limited buying support.

This makes the asset vulnerable if profit-taking begins without enough new demand entering the market.

$80K Breakout or Setup?

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit believes bitcoin is now moving through the final stage of a bull trap. This essentially means the recent strength may not last and could be setting up a sharper drop ahead. According to his latest findings, the market is nearing a turning point where downside pressure will return with force and potentially push BTC to new lows after this phase ends.

Despite that outlook, he isn’t stepping away just yet. The analyst is still holding a long position he opened around $71,000, expecting bitcoin to push a bit higher into the $83,000-$85,000 range before things turn. The idea is simple – “start building shorts after taking profits on the long!”

Meanwhile, on-chain data from Santiment pointed to a clear gap between bitcoin’s price and how much the network is actually being used right now. Even as the crypto asset climbed, its network activity hasn’t picked up with it. Daily usage has fallen to two-year lows, with around 531,000 wallets making transactions and about 203,000 new wallets being created each day. Both figures are sitting near their lowest levels in a long time.

Normally, when BTC starts rising, more people step in with more wallets being created, more transactions happening, and overall, stronger activity across the network. That’s usually what supports a rally and keeps it going. The price is moving up, but user participation is not following. In short, Santiment stated that there is less “buying fuel” behind the move. This suggests that a smaller group of participants is behind the move, rather than a broad wave of new and returning users coming in.

Bitcoin has gained around 22% over the past five weeks, but without growth in active addresses or new wallets, there is not much fresh demand backing its price. If the larger players currently driving the price higher decide to take profits, there may not be enough new buyers to absorb that selling and keep the asset steady.

Weak Interest Can Mark a Turning Point

At the same time, Santiment also explained that very low activity does not always mean the market will stay weak. These periods have often appeared when interest is at its lowest.

If BTC is already pushing toward $80,000 with activity this low, then a pickup in users – more wallets, and more transactions – could have a strong impact once participation starts rising again, especially toward the higher levels seen during the 2024-2025 peaks.

From a technical standpoint, crypto analyst Ali Martinez flagged a bullish signal on bitcoin’s weekly chart that has already started playing out. A MACD crossover confirmed on April 13 has so far led to an almost 15% increase, and past trends indicate such moves often extend further.

Martinez observed that similar crossovers in October 2023 and October 2024 led to gains of 147% and 75%, respectively, while another in May 2025 resulted in a 35% move. He also found that bitcoin’s 200-day moving average near $83,000 remains a major level, and a steady move above it could open the path toward higher price zones.