Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Set To Close This Month In The Red, Here’s Why

Bitcoin’s recovery attempt has carried it back above $80,000 for the first time since late January 2026, giving bulls a reason to argue that the worst of the recent correction has passed. However, one crypto analyst believes the move is running directly into the level that could decide how May ends for BTC.

In a technical outlook shared on X, crypto analyst Leshka warned that Bitcoin is likely to close May in the red, pointing to a bear flag structure playing out on the daily chart. 

Why Bitcoin Will Close May In Red

Leshka’s outlook on Bitcoin is based on its price action since the February dump. The daily candlestick timeframe chart shows BTC recovering inside an ascending channel, with price grinding higher from the $60,000 region into the $80,000 range at the time of writing. This recovery looks constructive because the movement has caused Bitcoin to print higher lows and higher highs since the February low.

However, Leshka interprets the same structure differently. According to the analyst, the rising channel is a bear flag currently in formation. A bear flag usually appears when price bounces upward in a controlled channel after a major drop, only to later break below the structure and continue lower.

Source: Chart from Leshka on X

As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s recent advance is shown pressing on the upper boundary of the ascending channel, and this is around the same area where the 200-day moving average is located. Interestingly, Bitcoin has gone seven months without a daily close above this moving average, and this makes it a major line between a recovery rally and a confirmed trend reversal.

At the time of writing, the 200 MA is around $82,000. The outlook here depends on how the Bitcoin The projected bearish path proposed by the analyst shows Bitcoin making one final push into the resistance/200 MA confluence losing the channel, and falling back to the $58,000 to $56,000 range by June.