
Bitcoin (BTC) Neared $80K as the US and Iran Extended the Ceasefire: Your Weekly Crypto Recap
Bitcoin nears $80K as US-Iran ceasefire extended; altcoins surge.

Bitcoin's correlation with the Dollar Index has reached -0.90, the most extreme in nearly four years. This indicates that as the dollar weakens, bitcoin tends to gain value, and vice versa.
For bitcoin BTC$78,216.44 traders, the direction of the Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the greenback's strength against a basket of other currencies, hasn’t mattered this much in nearly four years.
That’s because the 30-day correlation coefficient between the two now stands at -0.90, according to TradingView, the most negative reading since September 2022. A reading below 0 indicates an inverse relationship: When the dollar weakens, bitcoin gains, and vice versa.
Keep in mind, though, that the reading, while widely tracked, can be influenced by bitcoin’s 24/7 trading structure, particularly weekend price action that is not mirrored in the Dollar Index’s weekday-only trading.
The coefficient of determination, or correlation squared, comes in at 0.81, implying that roughly 81% of bitcoin’s short-term price moves are statistically associated with moves in the index.
Notably, bitcoin's rally has stalled since hitting highs above $79,000 on Wednesday. This comes as DXY bounced to 98.75 from the April 17 low of 97.63.
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The outlook for the Dollar Index appears supported by broader macro risks, including elevated oil prices tied to the tanker traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a continued U.S.-Iran standoff over ceasefire negotiations.
"Macro is still trying to lean against it [BTC's continued rally]. Oil has risen for five straight sessions and Hormuz remains effectively constrained. That should be a headwind because it keeps the inflation channel alive and keeps risk premia from fully unwinding," analysts at Marex said in an email.
One positive is the sustained inflows into the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While those are keeping prices supported, industry leaders are still taking a cautious approach.
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, said bitcoin may not see a meaningful recovery until October or November, and the current price action aligns with BTC's four-year reward halving cycle. He said that whales, who hold large numbers of BTC, and long-time holders have continued to sell into ETF-driven demand. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "."
The current correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index is -0.90, indicating a strong inverse relationship.
When the Dollar Index weakens, Bitcoin typically gains value, and when the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin tends to lose value.
A correlation coefficient of -0.90 means that Bitcoin's price movements are highly inversely related to the Dollar Index, influencing trading strategies.
Bitcoin's price rally has stalled after reaching highs above $79,000, coinciding with a bounce in the Dollar Index to 98.75.

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Ether-bitcoin ratio's daily chart. (TradingView)
The chart shows daily swings in the ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio in candlestick format since July last year.
This week, the ratio fell nearly 3% to 0.02965, its lowest since March 15. The move has two bearish implications.
First, it confirms a downside break from the short-term ascending channel that had guided the recovery from early February lows. Second, it pushes the ratio back below the broader downtrend line that has defined the decline since August.
This breakdown reinforces bearish momentum and increases the likelihood of further downside or extended consolidation in the ETH/BTC pair, that is, it points to continued underperformance of ether relative to bitcoin ahead.