XRP Sends Bullish On-Chain Signal Despite Weak Price Action

XRP is showing signs of on-chain stabilization despite trading below the average holder cost basis, according to data by Alphractal. The data points to a market still under pressure, but one where network activity, exchange supply and leverage conditions do not resemble a panic-driven breakdown.

Alphractal’s asset overview places XRP’s spot price at $1.4343, below its realized price of $1.4862. That gap matters because realized price reflects the average on-chain acquisition cost across circulating XRP. With spot price below that level, the average holder is sitting on an unrealized loss.

XRP On-Chain Data Points To Stabilization

The firm’s AI analysis framed the setup through XRP’s MVRV ratio, which stands at 0.9613. “An MVRV below 1.0 means the market is valuing XRP below aggregate cost basis,” the analysis stated. “Historically, this zone reflects late bear-phase or deep consolidation conditions, not euphoric pricing.”

That conclusion is reinforced by XRP’s NUPL reading, which sits at -0.0402 and places the asset in a “Fear” state. Net unrealized profit/loss slightly below zero suggests the network is marginally underwater, a zone where weaker holders may exit but longer-term accumulation often begins to appear. Alphractal described it as “a psychologically fragile zone,” but not yet a capitulation regime.

The supply picture is also notable. XRP’s market capitalization stands at $88.33 billion, ranking it fourth among crypto assets in the dataset, with 61.57 billion XRP in circulating supply. Exchange reserves amount to 3.68 billion XRP, or $5.27 billion, equal to roughly 6% of circulating supply.

For a top-five asset, that is structurally low. It suggests that a large share of XRP remains outside immediate trading venues, reducing available sell-side liquidity. Exchange reserves did rise 2.3% over seven days, indicating some short-term liquidity returning to exchanges, but Alphractal said the move is “not enough to suggest distribution dominance.”

The strongest part of the report is network usage. Active addresses reached 48,946, rising 17.7% over one day and 40.8% over seven days. Daily transaction count stood at 2.81 million, while adjusted transaction value reached $29.58 billion per day.

“XRP is showing a strong rebound in address activity, while transaction count and value are both rising weekly,” the analysis said. “This divergence — rising participation without aggressive price appreciation — typically reflects organic network usage rather than speculative churn.”

Valuation and network-efficiency metrics also point to a market that is under pressure but not structurally broken. Alphractal described XRP’s NVT ratio as elevated but stabilizing, token velocity as moderate and VANV as neutral. In the firm’s reading, valuation relative to transferred value is not overheated, while velocity has not collapsed.