Bitcoin, ether in Goldilocks rally while smaller coins take a back seat

Major cryptocurrencies are rising alongside gains in U.S. equities as oil prices shed the war premium built up in recent weeks. But broader market participation remains elusive and limited to only a few coins.

Bitcoin BTC$74,438.25 and ether (ETH) have risen 5% and 9%, respectively, in the past 24 hours as digital asset treasury firms like Strategy (MSTR) and Bitmine (BMNR) sustain strong demand and traders seek bullish exposure via futures. More importantly, perpetual funding rates are positive, but remain below 10% for both assets, indicating healthy demand for bullish bets without signs of overheating — a Goldilocks scenario.

Solana's SOL has bounced to the mid-$80s, but it has been here before several times in recent weeks and still doesn't offer directional clarity. A similar conclusion can be drawn for the payments-focused token XRP.

Analysts are bullish, but want to see BTC establish a foothold above $74,000-$75,000.

"A victory for the bulls in this battle will pave an easier path to the $87K–$90K range, where the 200-day MA and the November–January support are located. Optimism in global markets increases the chances of reaching these heights in the coming days, but before rising above $90K, Bitcoin may require a lengthy period of consolidation and cooling off," Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.

The digital asset services wing of the Marex Group stressed that bitcoin needs to hold above $74,000 without the market becoming overheated with excess leverage.

"If bitcoin can consolidate above 73k to 74k without funding overheating, this can extend. If it gives it back quickly, it confirms that the move was mostly headline and squeeze, not a true demand shift," Marex's crypto trading analysts said.

Select altcoins, such as ZEC, HYPE, and AAVE, and memecoins, such as PEPE, continue to rally. HYPE’s parent platform, Hyperliquid, is increasingly capturing share in the perpetual futures market from centralized exchanges (CEXs). Data shared by Hyperliquid News shows the decentralized platform’s share of open interest relative to CEXs climbed to a new all-time high of 6.9%.

The broader market, however, has yet to participate fully in the bitcoin rally. That's evident from traditional metrics measuring market breadth based on price performance filters.

For instance, BTC's price is now convincingly above its 50-day moving average — a bullish signal, according to analysts. However, only 51 of the top 100 coins (including BTC) are showing the same behavior, according to data source TradingView.