Bitcoin LTH Data Turns Cautious: Supply Rises, But SOPR Stays Below 1.0

TL;DR

Bitcoin's long-term holder supply has increased to 8.32 million BTC, but the SOPR metric has dipped below 1.0, indicating cautious market sentiment. This suggests that while more coins are being held long-term, some are being sold at a loss.

Key points

Bitcoin's LTH Realized Supply increased to 8.32 million BTC
LTH SOPR fell to 0.979, below neutral
3.06 million BTC added to LTH supply in three months
Some long-term holders are selling at a loss
Market sentiment is becoming more cautious

Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort is still expanding, but a key profitability gauge has slipped back below neutral, creating a more cautious read on market structure even as older supply continues to move out of circulation.
In an April 17 market note, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s LTH Realized Supply climbed from 5.26 million BTC in January to 8.32 million BTC as of April 16, an increase of 3.06 million BTC in three months. At the same time, LTH SOPR, measured on a seven-day moving average, fell to 0.979 and has now remained below 1.0 for five straight days.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Data Turns Cautious

“The long-term holder cohort continues to expand,” he wrote. “This combination matters: the volume of coins in the LTH cohort is growing, but part of the spent old coins is already exiting at a loss.” In other words, more coins are aging into long-term holder status, but some of the coins that are being spent by that cohort are no longer being sold profitably.

Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply Total | Source: Axel Adler Jr.

The supply side of the equation still looks structurally constructive. Adler said the Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply chart shows “a sharp increase in the volume of coins in the LTH cohort,” rising from 4.16 million BTC to 8.32 million BTC over the past year. He argued that the trend signals “an expansion of long-term holding and a compression of liquid supply,” while also noting that part of the increase reflects existing coins simply maturing into the 155-day threshold rather than fresh purchases alone.

A rising LTH Realized Supply series does not automatically imply new demand, but it does point to more supply becoming inactive for longer periods. Adler contrasted the current setup with the 2022 bear market, when LTH Realized Supply reached 15.31 million BTC in November before beginning to decline as older coins were spent. For now, he said, the current profile is more consistent with consolidation near $75,000 than with a broad distribution event.