Bitcoin Price Has Not Reached Its Real Bottom, And A ‘Big Storm’ Is Coming

TL;DR

A crypto analyst warns that Bitcoin has not yet reached its true price floor and could fall below $45,000 before a recovery. The current bear market mirrors patterns from 2022, with Bitcoin already down over 40% from its all-time high of $126,000.

Key points

Bitcoin has not reached its true price floor.
Analyst predicts a potential drop below $45,000.
Current bear market mirrors the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin has fallen over 40% from its all-time high.
Market is in a second phase characterized by volatility.

While others argue that the Bitcoin price has already found its bottom and could be gearing up for a bullish reversal, one crypto analyst has rejected these claims, expecting further downside instead. According to Marmot, a crypto expert on X, Bitcoin has not yet reached its true price floor. He warns that the flagship cryptocurrency could crash below $45,000 before any sustainable recovery to the upside takes shape.

Bitcoin Price Action Mirrors 2022 Bear Market

In a recent X post, Marmot shared a bearish analysis of Bitcoin, comparing its current bear market to past cycles. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s recent price action closely mirrors patterns seen in the 2022 bear market.

Notably, Bitcoin has already fallen more than 40% from its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. Since that peak, the flagship cryptocurrency has trended downward, recording brief price rallies, which Marmot has described as “fake recoveries.” These upside moves temporarily lure investors into the market before prices reverse sharply downwards, leading to losses.

To support his bearish outlook, Marmot has divided Bitcoin’s current bear market into three phases. The first phase was completed after the cryptocurrency crashed by over 54%, now trading at around above $74,000. According to him, the market is now in the second bear phase, a period characterized by repeated bull traps, fakeouts, and continued volatility designed to wipe out short-term investors.

The most recent bull trap was observed after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, which sent Bitcoin surging briefly above $73,000. However, this rally proved short-lived as the price quickly reversed toward $71,000 before rebounding again above $74,000 at the time of writing.