Bitcoin reclaims $74K as spot ETF demand clashes with BTC miner sell pressure

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas

Bitcoin monthly futures traded at a 2% annualized premium relative to regular spot markets, indicating a lack of demand for bullish leverage. Under neutral conditions, the indicator should hold between 4% and 8% to compensate for the cost of capital. Regardless of performance over the past couple of weeks, Bitcoin is down 18% in 2026, while the S&P 500 remains relatively flat year-to-date.

Regulatory clarity may back Bitcoin’s rally

While it is impossible to pinpoint the rationale for the sharp Bitcoin correction in late January, the lack of support from US lawmakers regarding the regulatory landscape likely played an important role. US Senator Cynthia Lummis has urged her colleagues to approve the CLARITY Act, which could define how stablecoin issuers operate and establish thresholds for tokens to be deemed decentralized.

The bill is currently facing a critical window in the Senate Banking Committee. Major exchanges have recently voiced concerns about late-stage additions to decentralized finance (DeFi) restrictions and the exact scope of tokenized assets. US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins has also stated that "it is time" for Congress to advance with the regulation.

USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX

USD stablecoins traded at a 0.4% discount to the official US dollar-to-yuan exchange rate on Monday, a typical sign of excessive demand to exit cryptocurrency markets. Balanced demand usually results in a 0.5% to 1.5% premium to compensate for the costs of traditional FX remittance and the regulatory friction caused by China's capital controls.

Related: How Bitcoin and gold reacted differently to the Iran war shock

Bitcoin miners’ sell pressure, US macroeconomic uncertainty

Given the strong correlation with traditional markets and weak derivatives metrics, there is no basis to claim that Bitcoin’s bear market is over based solely on ETF inflows and accumulation from a handful of companies, especially as publicly listed miners have recently reduced their positions.

MARA Holdings (MARA US) sold 15,133 BTC, while Riot Platforms (RIOT US) reduced its exposure by 2,325 BTC and Cango (CANG US) sold 2,000 BTC in the past 30 days.

For now, Bitcoin’s path to $80,000 is largely dependent on a more favorable risk perception, although short-term momentum relies mostly on the status of the US and Israel-Iran War.