Bitcoin reclaims $75,000 as Iran ceasefire talks advance, equities rally resumes

Bitcoin is back above $75,000 as markets price another diplomatic off-ramp.

Bitcoin traded at $75,733 on Tuesday morning, up 1.5% over 24 hours and 1.7% on the week, after Iran confirmed it will send a delegation to Pakistan for a second round of ceasefire talks. Ether rose 1.2% to $2,310, XRP gained 1.3% to $1.43, and BNB climbed 1.5% to $630. Solana was the lone laggard in the top 10, up just 0.9% and down 1.1% on the week.

The MSCI All Country World Index resumed its rally after Monday's pause, climbing 0.1% as Asian equities led the move higher and the regional tech index advanced 2.4%. Brent crude fell 0.7% to $94.81 a barrel, gold slipped 0.6% to about $4,800, and silver dropped 1% to $78.90. Treasuries and the dollar were little changed.

The two-week ceasefire expires Wednesday evening Washington time, and Trump said on Monday he is not likely to extend it. That deadline is what markets are now trading.

Three vessels attempted transit through the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday with US and Iranian blockades still in place, the first test of whether the waterway is opening before a deal is signed.

Bitcoin has lagged equities through this entire cycle. The MSCI ACWI is on an 11-day rally that stumbled only once since the conflict de-escalated began, while bitcoin has spent the same stretch rebuilding from below $74,000 to just above $75,000. Part of that lag is structural.

Funding rates on bitcoin perpetual futures have stayed negative for about 46 consecutive days according to Bloomberg data, one of the longest runs of bearish derivatives positioning since the FTX collapse in late 2022.

Net inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs rose to $996.4 million last week per SoSoValue, and Ethereum spot ETFs took in $275.8 million.

Research firm Kaiko said in a weekend note that a break above $76,000 would open a path toward $85,000.

The mining side adds a different signal. Public mining companies sold a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, according to TheEnergyMag, more than in all of 2025 and above the 20,000 BTC miners dumped after the Terra collapse in Q2 2022.

Bitcoin's mining difficulty fell 2.43% to 135.59 trillion at the latest adjustment, while network hashrate recovered from roughly 978 exahashes per second to 992 EH/s this month per Glassnode.

Traders looking for the shorter-term signal will watch whether Bitcoin breaks $76,000 on a Pakistan talks progress headline, which would trigger the short squeeze K33 flagged, or slides back below $74,000 if Trump's Wednesday deadline expires without a deal. A deeper signal sits in the mining data. Miners selling at record pace through a difficulty drop suggests production economics remain compressed despite the price recovery, and any sustained rally above $80,000 would need to absorb continued treasury selling from the same cohort.